Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid October 10, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 17, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Slight improvement across the WV mountains and degradation in Perry County OH, otherwise no change this week National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): Expansion into Perry County OH D3 (Extreme Drought): No change D2 (Severe Drought): Slight improvement across the WV mountains D1 (Moderate Drought): No change D0: (Abnormally Dry): No change National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT October 10, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT October 8, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Perry County OH, Harrison County OH, and the upper Little Kanawha River basin No Change: Areas of southeast OH and northern WV Drought Improved: Significant improvement across southwest VA, the Ohio River vicinity, mountains of WV, northeast KY, southern half of WV Latest 7 Rainfall and 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - 7 Day Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right -30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service ending October 9, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Some rain across the WV mountains over the past week Dry across southeast OH, northeast KY, and western WV Rainfall surplus lingers in the long term across WV Coal Fields and mountains from remnants of Helene Significant long term rainfall deficits continue across central/northern WV lowlands and southeast OH Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows remain above normal in southern/eastern WV and below normal in southeast OH Improvement in some residential and agricultural wells in southern WV and northeast KY Agricultural Impacts Near surface soil moisture normal southwest VA, northeast KY, southern and eastern WV, below normal elsewhere Dry signal persists in deeper soil profiles Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Improved levels in irrigation wells/ponds except across northern WV and southeast OH Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger increases into the weekend, particularly Sunday ahead of a strong cold front Expected remain elevated with overall dry pattern and leaf drop over the next two weeks. Mitigation Actions Improved impacts overall including water supply and water quality across northeast KY and southern/eastern WV Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid October 9, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid October 10, 2024 Main Takeaways Streamflows are beginning to drop once again outside of the mountains, two weeks removed from Helene. Streamflow is typically lowest this time of year Remain above normal in the Upper Tug and New/Kanawha basins Below normal in the Hocking and Muskingum basins Groundwater wells remain low many locales Impacts Reservoir lakes will be entering their seasonal draw down to winter pool over the next several weeks. Releases may be impacted based on the extraordinary low summer pools Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: NASA 0-100cm soil moisture percentile valid October 10, 2024 Right: NASA 0-200cm soil moisture percentile valid October 10, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Soil moisture near normal outside of southeast OH and northwest WV, though deeper profiles exhibit a lingering dry signal across most areas outside of the mountains Impacts Improving levels in irrigation wells/ponds except across southeast OH and northern WV Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid October, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid October 10, 2024 Main Takeaways Fuels are drying out once again Increasing brush fire threat into the weekend Gusty winds ahead of strong cold front Sunday may increase this danger in WV Significant wildfire outlook is normal for October Impacts Expect fire danger to remain elevated through over the next two weeks due to leaf drop and overall dry weather pattern Amplified during days with wind and low relative humidity Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid October 9, 2024 Next 7 days: A strong cold front crosses Sunday but with limited moisture A few showers, mainly southeast OH and northern WV, with frontal passage Some showers may linger Monday behind the front, especially across the northern WV and in the WV mountains. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid October 9, 2024 Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures favored Below normal precipitation favored Impacts Brush fire threat remains elevated Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released October , 2024 Valid October 1, 2024 - December 31, 2024 Main Takeaways Updated outlook favors drought persisting through December across northern WV and southeast OH but improves elsewhere