Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid October 4, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 10, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Considerable improvement in drought across northeast KY and southern/southeastern WV National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): Improvement across the Coal Fields D3 (Extreme Drought): Improvement across southeast OH, southeast WV, and northeast KY D2 (Severe Drought): Improvement across southern WV D1 (Moderate Drought): Improvement across southwest VA D0: (Abnormally Dry): No change National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT September 19, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT September 24, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Perry County OH, Harrison County OH, and the upper Little Kanawha River basin No Change: Slivers of areas throughout Drought Improved: Significant improvement across southwest VA, the Ohio River vicinity, mountains of WV, northeast KY, southern half of WV Latest 7 Rainfall and 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - 7 Day Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right -30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service ending October 3, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways 4 to 6 inches of rain in the mountains and southern part of the state (localized amounts to 8 inches in the New River basin Amounts decreased with gain of latitude with generally an inch or less for the northern panhandle Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows improved significantly across the area, especially southern locations Several reservoir lake levels remain well below summer pools but some minor improvements over the past week Improvement in some residential and agricultural wells in southern WV and northeast KY Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture has recovered across southwest VA, northeast KY, southern and eastern WV Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed Unprecedented livestock being sold due to lack of feed/water Improving levels in irrigation wells/ponds except across northern WV and southeast OH Fire Hazard Impacts Temporary marked reduction in fire danger due to recent rains Expected to increase once again mid month with drier pattern and leaf drop. Mitigation Actions Improving impacts overall including water supply and water quality Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid October 2, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid October 4, 2024 Main Takeaways Streamflows have improved significantly across many parts of the state Groundwater wells remain low many locales Impacts Reservoir lakes below summer pool (some improvements over past week): Tygart Lake 44.3’ below Stonewall Jackson lake 10.2’ below Burnsville Lake 3.7’ below Beech Fork Lake 3.2’ below Improving impacts overall including water supply and water quality Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: NASA 0-100cm soil moisture percentile valid October 4, 2024 Right: NASA 0-200cm soil moisture percentile valid October 4, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Soil moisture recharge across many areas, though deeper profiles exhibit a lingering dry signal Impacts Improving levels in irrigation wells/ponds except across northern areas Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed Unprecedented livestock being sold due to lack of feed/water Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid October, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid October 4, 2024 Main Takeaways Fuels have recovered considerably across the state over the past week due to beneficial rains Significant wildfire outlook is now normal for October Impacts Expect fire danger to increase once again beginning next week due to leaf drop and overall drier pattern Amplified during days with wind and low relative humidity Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid October 4, 2024 Next 7 days: No significant rainfall forecast Strong cold front crosses Sunday with a round of showers and thunderstorms Cool dry air mass for much of next week Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid October 3, 2024 Main Takeaways Near normal temperatures favored Below normal precipitation favored Impacts Brush fire threat to increase once again Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released September 19, 2024 Valid September 19, 2024 - November 30, 2024 Main Takeaways Updated outlook favors drought persisting through December across northern half of state but improves elsewhere