Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid September 27, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 3, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Exceptional Drought expands into more of southeast OH and central WV Extreme Drought expands across southeast WV Entire state of WV in at least Moderate Drought National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): Further expansion across southeast OH and south central WV D3 (Extreme Drought): Expansion farther into southeast WV and northeast KY D2 (Severe Drought): Slight expansion to KY border D1 (Moderate Drought): Expansion into southwest VA D0: (Abnormally Dry): No change National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT September 19, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT September 24, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Much of southern WV, southwest VA, and portions of southeast OH No Change: Slivers of areas throughout Drought Improved: Slight improvement in the vicinity of Parkersburg Latest 7 Rainfall and 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - 7 Day Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right -30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service ending September 27, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Widespread 3-5 inches of rain across southeast WV and southwest VA over the past 72 hours due, in part, to remnants of Helene Much less noted in southeast OH and northern WV Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows continue well below much of southeast OH and WV lowlands prior to Helene Several reservoir lake levels are well below summer pools Some residential and agricultural wells dry Some fish kills being reported Agricultural Impacts Low soil moisture has stunted crop growth in many parts of the state Crop yield losses continue to be reported in southeast OH and central WV Lack of hay has resulted in supplemental feeding Significant early sales of livestock Hauling of water for livestock continues across many parts of southeast OH and western/central WV Fire Hazard Impacts Temporary marked reduction in fire danger due to recent rains Expected to increase once again in October with drier pattern resuming after next week Mitigation Actions Emergency Water Conservation for Nicholas County but Richwood’s water supply has returned to normal Water hauling for town of Calhoun County (waste water treatment purposes) Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid September 25, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid September 27, 2024 Main Takeaways Streamflow remains below to much below normal across much of southeast OH and WV Next update will show significant improvement in streamflow across southern WV Groundwater wells remain low across much of the WV lowlands Impacts Reservoir lakes below summer pool: Tygart Lake 47.3’ below record Stonewall Jackson lake 10’ below Burnsville Lake 4’ below Sutton Lake 11’ below Beech Fork Lake 3.1’ below Residential and agricultural wells experiencing impacts Some fish kills are now being reported Water supply negatively affected for communities that depend on water from nearby creeks and rivers. Emergency Water Conservation in Nicholas County though Richwood’s water issues are improving Lumberport (Harrison County) water quality issues emerging Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: GRACE Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile valid September 24, 2024 Right: Crop-CASMA Subsoil Soil Moisture Anomaly valid September 24, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Soil moisture remains well below normal across the much of the WV southeast OH Next update will show significant improvement to soil moisture thanks to remnants of Helene Impacts Declining levels in irritation wells/ponds have led to hauling of water for livestock Crop yield loss reports across much of WV and southeast OH Hay shortage reported throughout WV and southeast OH supplemental feeding needed Unprecedented reports of livestock being sold due to lack of feed/water in WV Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid September, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid September 28, 2024 Main Takeaways Fuels have recovered considerably across the state over the past 72 hours due to beneficial rains Marked decrease in Fire Danger through next week Significant wildfire outlook is above normal for October May change to normal with updated release Oct 1 Impacts Expect fire danger to increase once again in October without a meaningful rainfall Amplified during days with wind Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid September 27, 2024 Next 7 days: Remnants of Helene to bring more beneficial rains to the state today. Remnants linger into Monday with scattered showers Strong cold front crosses Tuesday with a round of showers Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 26, 2024 Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures favored Below normal precipitation favored Impacts Brush fire threat may increase once again Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released September 19, 2024 Valid September 19, 2024 - November 30, 2024 Main Takeaways Favors drought persisting through the fall for most Updated outlook will be released Oct 1