Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid September 12, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated September 17, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Exceptional Drought expands slightly but improves slightly in some areas Extreme Drought expands across WV National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): Expansion into Putnam, Calhoun, Clay Counties with small area of improvement along Ohio River D3 (Extreme Drought): Expansion farther into southeast and Greenbrier Valley D2 (Severe Drought): Slight expansion toward the Tug Fork River D1 (Moderate Drought): No change D0: (Abnormally Dry): No change National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT September 12, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT September 12, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Much of the lowlands No Change: Parts of the Potomac Highlands Drought Improved: Far eastern panhandle Remnants of Debby Latest 7 and 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending September 5, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Some beneficial rains along the Ohio River Barely a drop in the bucket elsewhere Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows continue well below much of WV lowlands Several reservoir lake levels are well below summer pools Agricultural Impacts Low soil moisture has stunted crop growth in many parts of the state Crop yield losses continue to be reported in the state particularly in the western, central, and eastern panhandle of the state Lack of hay has resulted in supplemental feeding Early sales of livestock Hauling of water for livestock continues across many parts of the state, particularly across western and central WV Fire Hazard Impacts Increased brush fire activity with increased fire danger going forward without any rainfall Amplified on days with wind Mitigation Actions Emergency Water Conservation for Nicholas County Water hauling for town of Kermit and Calhoun County (waste water treatment purposes) Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid September 12, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid September 12, 2024 Main Takeaways Streamflow remains below to much below normal across much of southeast OH and southern W , especially the Guyandotte Basin Groundwater wells remain low across much of the WV lowlands Impacts Reservoir lakes below summer pool: Tygart Lake 40’ below Stonewall Jackson lake 9’ below Burnsville Lake 3.2’ below Sutton Lake 8.35’ below Beech Fork Lake 2.8’ below Some residential and agricultural wells experiencing impacts Water supply negatively affected for communities that depend on water from nearby creeks and rivers. Emergency Water Conservation in Nicholas County Kermit (Mingo County) water shortage Water from Burnsville for waste water treatment in Calhoun County Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid September 10, 2024 Right: USDA Crop Progress Report valid September 7, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Soil moisture remains well below normal across the much of the WV southeast OH Impacts Declining levels in irritation wells/ponds have led to hauling of water for livestock across parts of southeast OH and the lowlands of WV Crop yield loss reports across much of WV and southeast OH Hay shortage reported throughout WV and southeast OH supplemental feeding needed Reports of livestock being sold due to lack of feed/water Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid September, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Significant wildfire outlook is above normal for September Impacts Brush fire activity has been increasing over the past couple of weeks 10 hour afternoon fuels (leaf litter) have been in critically low levels over the past 1 to 2 weeks. Expect fire danger to increase with each passing week without a meaningful rainfall Amplified during days with wind Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid September 19, 2024 Next 7 days: Remnants of Francine stay well west into the lower Ohio Valley into the weekend Watching another tropical low forecast to develop along the Carolina coast and make inroads toward the area mid week next week. May provide some meaningful rain across the mountains and eastern panhandle???? Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 12, 2024 Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures favored Normal precipitation favored across the east Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across the lowlands Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 6, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released August 31, 2024 Valid August 31, 2024 - November 30, 2024 Main Takeaways Overall improvement in drought conditions is possible across the south However, even near normal rainfall combined with above normal temperatures would result in drought persistence