Drought Conditions Update for Central North Carolina 
Valid June 27, 2024

This special update is being issued with the rapid development of Moderate Drought (D1) conditions and will be updated if Severe Drought (D2) conditions are develop.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov 


Current Drought Conditions
Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office

Current Drought Conditions
Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change

Main Takeaways
Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are observed across the Northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions are observed  in the Southern Piedmont
Image Caption: 
Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st.
Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. 
Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st.
Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. 

Observed Precipitation


Main Takeaways
Most of central North Carolina has between 1-3 inches of rain in the past 30 days.  However, some areas have missed out on rainfall and have received much less than one inch.



Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall

Image Captions: 
Left - Precipitation Amount for NC
Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC
Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service
Data over the past 30 days ending June 26, 2024
https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png
https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png



Precipitation Forecast


Next 7 days: 
Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this week through the weekend, which may result in rainfall, ranging from 0.10-0.25 inches in the west to 0.50-1.00 inch in the east.

This rainfall will be dependent on thunderstorms development, which may lead to highly variable rainfall totals.




Image Caption: 
Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday April 21 to Friday April 28
Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast


8-14 Day Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook


Main Takeaways
There are very high probabilities of above normal temperatures in Days 8-14 across central North Carolina.

Precipitation in Days 8-14 is most likely to be near or below normal.


Possible Impact
Continued development or worsening of drought conditions, especially in areas that do not receive rainfall.

Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.
Valid July 4-10, 2024 

Weeks 3-4 Outlook


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook


Main Takeaways
There are high probabilities of above normal temperatures in early to mid-July across central North Carolina.

The weeks 3-4 outlook leans toward near to below normal rainfall through mid July.


Possible Impact
If the end of June continues to be hot and dry, then persistent hot and dry conditions in the first half of July will lead to continued worsening of drought conditions and potentially significant impacts on agriculture and strain on water resources.

Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook.
Valid July 9-19, 2024