Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid July 18, 2024 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by August 2, 2024. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Severe Drought continues across portions of the North Carolina Coastal Plain and northwest Piedmont, while Extreme Drought is developing just to the west of the Triad. Some improvement in drought related conditions have been seen in the northern Coastal Plain. 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways There have been improvements to the Moderate Drought (D1) in the northern Coastal Plain. Continued to dry conditions have caused Severe Drought (D2) to expand further into the Triad. Extreme Drought (D3) has developed in the north Foothills and northwest Piedmont, including a portion of northwest Forsyth County. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT July 16, 2024 Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT July 16, 2024 Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Well below normal rainfall has persisted in western North Carolina, as well as portions of the southern Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain. Portions of the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain were fortunate enough to see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall from thunderstorms. Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending July 16, 2024 https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png Latest 30-Day Average Max Temperature and Departure from Normal Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures continued through mid July for all of North Carolina and were most above normal in the Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain, which we also the driest areas in the past 30 days. Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending July 13, 2024 Observed Temperature https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-7-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png Hydrologic Conditions Main Takeaways Rainfall in the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain have held streamflow recover, at least in the near term. However, streamflow in western North Carolina continues to fall. The Lumber River Basin into the lower Pee-Dee River Basin have been hit the hardest with the lack of rainfall. Impacts Recent rainfall in the east has helped reservoir operations in the Piedmont with maintaining near-targeted lake levels and downstream flows. In the southern Coastal Plain some streams beginning to dry up in spots. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid July 17, 2024 Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways Soil moisture deficits continue to grow in western North Carolina as well as the southern Coastal Plain, while areas in the northern Coastal Plain have seen improvement. Impacts Rainfall in the Coastal Plain has benefited farmers, although many corn crops may be too late to save. Pasture losses are also increasing. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid July 16, 2024 Right: USDA Crop Progress Report.Valid July, 2024 Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Recent rainfall in the east has helped reservoir operations in the Piedmont while some streams in the southern Coastal Plain are beginning to dry up in spots. Agricultural Impacts Much of the agricultural community are reporting significant impacts. Corn crops are showing the most significant impact, with some complete losses, especially in sandier soils. Pasture lossed are increasing as well. Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known significant impacts at this time, although the dry conditions have increased the danger of wildfire development. Mitigation actions Water Conservation Advisories have been issued in Johnston and Wilson Counties, although recent rainfall is aiding in those efforts. \ Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: A trough is expected to develop to our northwest allowing moisture to flow in from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. In addition, several fronts will move into the region and stall across the area. These features will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms over the next 7 days. The greatest chance of rain will be for Friday through Monday. The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days should average between 1.5 and 3 inches with the heaviest and most widespread rain likely across eastern areas. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid July 18-25, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks from the CPC for July 25 through July 31 are shown to the right . The temperature forecast is for increased probabilities of near to slightly above normal readings. The precipitation forecast leans slightly above normal. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 25-31, 2024. Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks from the CPC for July 27 through August 9 are shown to the right. The temperature forecast slightly favors near to slightly above normal readings. The precipitation forecast favors above normal precipitation. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 27- August 9, 2024. Seasonal (3-Month) Climate Outlook Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Seasonal Outlook through September leans toward above normal temperatures for the period across all of central North Carolina. The Seasonal Outlook also leans toward above normal rainfall, with higher probabilities over eastern North Carolina. Possible Impact Seasonal above normal rainfall would help to mitigate some of the drought impacts, although above normal temperature and only near normal precipitation would likely cause drought to persist or worsen. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid August to Ocotber, 2024. Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Drought conditions have worsened in the northwest Piedmont but have eased in portions of the northern Coastal Plain The short and long range rainfall outlooks call for a chance of above normal rainfall, which would help to alleviate some drought conditions. While the longer term forecasts favor above normal temperatures into early August, the overall pattern does not support the combination of excessive heat and dry conditions that we saw in late June and early July. Impacts may continue to become very localized depending on where typical summertime storms occur week over week. Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released July 18, 2024 valid for July to Ocotber, 2024 Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov