Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid July 5, 2024 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by July 18, 2024. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Severe Drought develops across portions of the North Carolina coastal plain. 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways Moderate Drought (D1) has expanded across the southern Piedmont. Severe Drought (D2) has developed in Wayne County There has been some improvement around Fay and Clinton due to locally heavy rainfall. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT July 3, 2024 Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT July 3, 2024 Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Conditions have been very dry since early-June, with many areas receiving less than one inch of rain, which is 3-4 inches below normal. Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending July 3, 2024 LOCAL RAINFALL SUMMARY (INCHES) RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 06/26/2024 0.63 0.92 -0.29 68% LAST 14 DAYS 06/19/2024 0.63 1.84 -1.21 34% LAST 30 DAYS 06/03/2024 2.89 3.89 -1.00 74% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 06/26/2024 0.14 0.88 -0.74 16% LAST 14 DAYS 06/19/2024 0.14 1.84 -1.70 8% LAST 30 DAYS 06/03/2024 0.82 4.04 -3.22 20% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 06/26/2024 1.93 1.20 0.73 161% LAST 14 DAYS 06/19/2024 2.28 2.40 -0.12 95% LAST 30 DAYS 06/03/2024 3.33 4.90 -1.57 68% https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png Latest 30-Day Average Max Temperature and Departure from Normal Main Takeaways Temperatures have been above normal over the past 30 days, with particularly hot conditions in the past one to two weeks, Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending June 30, 2024 Observed Temperature https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-7-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png Hydrologic Conditions Main Takeaways Streamflow has been rapidly falling below normal since mid-June. Lower portions of the Cape Fear, Neuse and Tar River Basins are showing the most notable decline. Impacts Below average streamflow is reducing inflow into some area reservoirs and lake levels continue to fall. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid July 4, 2024 Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways Soil moisture is rapidly drying across central North Carolina and have shown the most dramatic decrease in the coastal plain and northern Piedmont regions. Impacts There have been significant impacts on agriculture, particularly in corn crops. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid July 3, 2024 Right: USDA Crop Progress Report.Valid June, 2024 Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows continue to fall below normal area-wide. Below average streamflow is reducing inflow into some area reservoirs and lake levels continue to fall. Agricultural Impacts Much of the agricultural community are reporting significant impacts. Corn crops are showing the most significant impact, with some complete losses, especially in sandier soils. Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known significant impacts at this time, although the dry conditions have increased the danger of wildfire development. Mitigation actions Water Conservation Advisories have been issued in Johnston and Wilson Counties. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend into early next week. Rainfall will vary day-to-day, with the potential for 1-2 inches in the western and northern Piedmont regions. Some area may see slow moving or multiple rounds of storms and locally higher amounts. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid July 5 to July 12, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased probabilities of above normal temperatures in days 8-14 across central North Carolina. Precipitation in days 8-14 is most likely to be near normal. Possible Impact Continued well above normal temperatures will cause drought to persist if rainfall remains only near normal. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 12 - 18, 2024. Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased probabilities of above normal temperatures and a slight lean toward above normal precipitation for mid to late July across central North Carolina. Possible Impact While rain will be welcome, continued above normal temperatures for several more weeks will cause drought to persist and perhaps worsen if rainfall remains near normal. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 13 to 26, 2024. Seasonal (3-Month) Climate Outlook Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Seasonal Outlook through September leans toward above normal temperatures for the period across all of central North Carolina. The Seasonal Outlook also leans toward above normal rainfall, with higher probabilities over eastern North Carolina. Possible Impact Seasonal above normal rainfall would help to mitigate some of the drought impacts, although above normal temperature and only near normal precipitation would likely cause drought to persist or worsen. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid July to September, 2024. Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Overall, flash drought has caused significant early summer impacts on agriculture and impacts on water resources will worsen if drought continues to worsen. The short and long range rainfall outlooks call for a chance of above normal rainfall, which would improve drought conditions. However, even near-normal rainfall combined with above normal temperatures would result in drought persistence. Impacts may become very localized depending on where typical summertime storms occur week over week. Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released June 30, 2024 valid for July to September, 2024 Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov