Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid November, 16, 2024 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product will be updated around December 21, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Unusually warm and dry weather resulting in worsening drought Severe to Extreme drought emerging and expanding through central and western Arizona, as well as far southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST November 12, 2024 SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): La Paz, northern Yuma, and NW Maricopa counties D2 (Severe Drought): southern Yuma, much of Maricopa, and far northern Pinal counties D1 (Moderate Drought): far southern Maricopa, central Pinal, and Gila counties U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 4 am PST November 12, 2024 EXTREME TO SEVERE DROUGHT EXPANDING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): far eastern Imperial and Riverside counties D2 (Severe Drought): eastern Imperial and Riverside counties D1 (Moderate Drought): western Imperial and central Riverside counties Precipitation Rainfall across central and western Arizona, as well as SE California has been primarily less than 50% of normal the past 6 months The worst conditions were experienced in western Arizona where the driest monsoon on record occurred Rapid intensification of short term drought impacts have been seen since this summer Image Captions: Left - 6 Month Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - 6 Month Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 6 months ending October 2024 Precipitation Despite wetter weather early in the year, the dry conditions are becoming more prominent since the monsoon season Many locations in central and western Arizona are now in a below normal category for the calendar year with less than 70% of normal this calendar year Image Captions: Left - Year to Date Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Year to Date Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Year to Date Precipitation ending October 2024 Temperature Much of the region has just experienced its hottest 6-month time frame in the entire historical record (since 1896) with average temperatures more than 2oF to 3oF above normal The record hot summer has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture Image Captions: Left - 6 Month Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - 6 Month Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 6 months ending October 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions are currently in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona Lakes Powell and Mead levels will remain nearly steady through the end of the year with a continuation of Tier 1 shortage deliveries in 2025 Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts An unusually long wildfire season continued through the monsoon and into the fall season stressing resources across the state Other Impacts Ranchers in western Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to absent monsoon rainfall. Supplemental feed will be necessary in many locations to compensate. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Small, unregulated rivers and streams across central Arizona were generally flowing at below to much below normal levels Small to medium sized reservoirs remained above the long term average, but below levels seen last year Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid Nov 14, 2024. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts Recent dry conditions have pushed dead fine fuels below 8% over much of the local area despite cooler temperatures Although the threat of significant large wildland fires is near normal, smaller wildfires have still been occurring across parts of Arizona this autumn which is fairly unusual for this time of year Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (Nov-Dec-Jan) have a better chance of reaching above normal levels across Arizona and southeast California Odds are slightly tilted towards total precipitation during the Nov-Dec-Jan time frame falling in a below normal category Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over portions of central and western Arizona, as well as far southeast California Winter precipitation will be crucial in future drought trends Given a weak La Nina forecast, drought could develop or worsen over parts of the region Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM YYYY