Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid March 22, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around April 22, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Drought conditions continue to worsen locally with well below normal precipitation the past 6 months Extreme Drought continues across central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California with pockets of Exceptional Drought developing U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST March 18, 2025 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT EMERGES WHILE EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): northern La Paz, central Maricopa counties D3 (Extreme Drought): southern La Paz, Yuma, southwest and eastern Maricopa, Gila, and northern Pinal counties U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT March 18, 2025 EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): far northeast Riverside County D3 (Extreme Drought): Imperial and much of Riverside counties D2 (Severe Drought): north-central Riverside County Precipitation Rainfall across central and western Arizona, as well as SE California has been well less than 25% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Many locations along the lower Colorado River valley have received minimal since the summer monsoon Rapid intensification of short term drought impacts have been experienced in the past 6 months Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 5 months ending February 2025 Temperature Average temperatures this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are up to 3oF above normal This abnormal warmth in the top 10th percentile has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 5 months ending Febuary 2025 Abnormal warmth or coolness can play a role in the rate of evaporation and thus accelerate or slow drought development and spread. If you feel this is currently playing a role, you can include this slide, otherwise leave it skipped. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Unregulated inflow into Lakes Powell is expected less than 75% of average this spring which will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that restrictions are likely through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Many smaller wildfires have continued this winter in areas typically not prone to wildfire this time of year. This has stressed resources across Arizona heading into the typical spring/early summer wildfire season. Other Impacts Ranchers in western Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to absent rainfall the past 6-9 months. Supplemental feed has been necessary in many locations to compensate. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Small and medium unregulated rivers and streams across most of Arizona were flowing at below average levels Small to medium sized reservoirs remained at or above the long term average, but below levels seen last year Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid Mar 21, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS You may consider the following (scroll down for options): Fire Hazard Impacts Persistent dry conditions continue to support dead fine fuels below 8% over much of the local area despite the frequently cooler winter temperatures. The threat of significant large wildland fires will be above normal across southeast and central Arizona in April with the potential for this area to expand north through the spring. Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for April 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (Apr-May-Jun) have slightly better chances of averaging at above normal levels Odds are slightly tilted towards total precipitation during the Apr-May-Jun time frame falling in a below normal category Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California Precipitation the remainder of the spring will be crucial for future drought trends Given a current weak La Nina and odds for drier than average weather through the spring, drought should persist or worsen over much of the region