Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid February 21, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around March 21, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Drought conditions continue to worsen with minimal precipitation the past 6 months Extreme drought continues to expand across central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST February 18, 2025 EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): La Paz, Yuma, Maricopa, Gila, and northern Pinal counties D2 (Severe Drought): central Pinal County U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 4 am PST February, 2025 EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Imperial and much of Riverside counties D2 (Severe Drought): north-central Riverside County Precipitation Rainfall across central and western Arizona, as well as SE California has been well less than 25% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Many locations along the lower Colorado River valley have received little to no rainfall since the summer monsoon Rapid intensification of short term drought impacts have been experienced in the past 6 months Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 4 months ending January 2025 Precipitation Despite wetter weather early in 2024, unusually dry conditions have been prevalent since the monsoon season Many locations in central and western Arizona fell to less than 70% of normal in 2024 ranking in the lowest tercile Image Captions: Left - 2024 Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - 2024 Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker 2024 Precipitation ending December 2024 Temperature Despite a cooler January, average temperature this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are up to 3oF above normal This abnormal warmth in the top 10th percentile has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 4 months ending January 2025 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Unregulated inflow into Lakes Powell is expected less than 75% of average this spring which will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that restrictions are likely through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Many smaller wildfires have continued this winter in areas typically not prone to wildfire this time of year. This has stressed resources across Arizona heading into the typical spring/early summer wildfire season. Other Impacts Ranchers in western Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to absent rainfall the past 6-9 months. Supplemental feed has been necessary in many locations to compensate. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Small and medium unregulated rivers and streams across most of Arizona were flowing at below to historically low levels Small to medium sized reservoirs remained at or above the long term average, but below levels seen last year Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid Feb 20, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts Persistent dry conditions continue to support dead fine fuels below 8% over much of the local area despite the frequently cooler winter temperatures. The threat of significant large wildland fires will be above normal across southeast Arizona in March with the potential for this area to expand north through the spring. Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for March 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. If using this slide: Please limit to 2 total images per slide. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California Precipitation the remainder of the winter and spring will be crucial for future drought trends Given a current weak La Nina and odds for drier than average weather through the spring, drought should persist or worsen over much of the region