Drought Information Statement for Eastern OR & South Central WA Valid November 15, 2024 Issued By: NWS Pendleton Contact Information: pdt.operations@noaa.gov This product will be updated if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/pdt/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Severe Drought continues to affect the eastern Kittitas Valley while Moderate Drought is affecting portions of the central WA Cascades, Kittitas and Yakima counties, Central and North Central OR and portions of northeast OR Abnormally dry conditions continue over most of rest of the area, however, near to above normal precipitation this winter is expected to end or improve drought conditions area wide Normal significant fire potential for November through February (Northwest Coordination Center) 1 Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Eastern portions of the Kittitas Valley D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of the central Washington and Oregon Cascades, Kittitas and northern Yakima counties, central and north central Oregon, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, Blue Mountains, Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa County D0: (Abnormally Dry): Portions of the WA and OR Columbia Basin, the WA and OR Cascade crest, Simcoe Highlands, Eastern Columbia River Gorge and southern Yakima County U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Pendleton, OR One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change No changes Four-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened (1 Class Degradation): Portions of the Oregon Blue Mountains, Oregon Blue Mountain Foothills and Oregon Columbia Basin Drought Improved (1 Class Improvement): Portions of the OR and WA Cascade crest and small areas of Yakima and Benton Counties in WA Image Captions: Right - 4 Week Drought Class Change Left - 1 Week Drought Class Change Data Courtesy U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov Data over the past 7 days ending November 12, 2024 Data over the past 28 days ending November 12, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Mostly well below normal precipitation (0-50 percent of normal) with pockets of 50-75% of normal in portions of the OR and WA Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain Foothills and Southern Blue Mountains Highest precipitation amounts were 0.50 to 1 inch over the OR and WA Cascade crest and eastern Oregon Mountains Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data over the past 30 days ending October 27, 2024 Precipitation - Last 30 Days Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amounts for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the new 2025 water year beginning October 1, 2024 Below normal precipitation (50-80%) over much of the area for the 2025 water year that began October 1st, 2024 The exception: pockets of near to above normal precipitation (90-150%) in the WA Columbia Basin, Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the southern Blue Mountains and Hells Canyon Precipitation - 2025 Water Year Mainly near to below normal high temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees below normal for the last 7 days over most locations, except for 1 to 3 degrees above normal in northwest Kittitas County and OR and WA Columbia Basin Mainly near normal high temperatures for the last 30 days, with highs 1-3 degrees above normal in Kittitas County, WA and OR Columbia basin and Blue Mountain Foothills, northern Blue Mountains, Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa County. Temperatures were 1-3 degrees below normal in small pockets of the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Image Captions: Right - Temperature for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the last 7 days and 30 days ending November 11, 2024 Temperature - Last 7 and 30 Days Hydrologic Impacts Much below normal streamflow (<10th percentile) across the Lower Yakima and Lower Grand Ronde basins, below normal streamflow (10th-25th percentile) across the Naches, Upper Yakima, Klickitat, Middle Columbia-Hood, Middle Columbia-Lake Wallula, Lower Snake, Palouse, Upper Columbia-Entiat, Walla Walla, Wallowa, Lower John Day, and Willow basins, above normal streamflows for the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids basin and near normal streamflows for all other basins Reservoir levels are nearly all at or below 15% full with some outliers (Crane Prairie, Haystack, Ochoco and Prineville) in central Oregon at above normal levels (50-85% full) - this may affect fish and other aquatic species as well as recreation activities through the late fall and winter, especially in the Columbia Basin. Snowpack Impacts Most snow telemetry (SNOTEL) monitoring sites show above normal snow (150-300% of normal) but it is too early in the season to be meaningful. There are no known impacts at this time. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Other Impacts Washington Drought Emergency declared for all counties east of the Cascades Jefferson County Oregon Drought Emergency Declared Mitigation actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Summary of Impacts Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid November 13, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid November 13, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Main Takeaways The Lower Yakima basin has well below normal streamflow (<10 percent of normal) The Naches, Upper Yakima, Klickitat, Middle Columbia-Hood, Middle Columbia-Lake Wallula, Lower Snake, Palouse and Upper Columbia-Entiat basins have below normal streamflow (10th-24th percentile) The Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids basin has above normal streamflow (76-90% above normal) Other river, stream, and creek flows are near normal (25th-75th percentile) Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Washington Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid November 13, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid November 13, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Oregon Main Takeaways Well below normal (less than 10th percentile) for the Lower Grande Ronde basins Near normal streamflows (25th-75th percentile) for the Walla Walla, Wallowa, Lower John Day, and Willow basins Below normal (10th-24th percentile) for all other basins Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Main Takeaways The mountain snowpack is gone at all locations in the mountains of Northeast Oregon and Southeast Washington Impacts No known impacts at this time Snow water equivalent is related to the amount of water stored in snowpack. The lack of snow can affect the amount of available water for spring and summer snow melt. This can have impacts on water storage, irrigation, fisheries, vegetation, municipal water supplies, and wildfire. Image Captions: Oregon and Washington SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent % of Normal Data Courtesy USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Daily Value as of July 11, 2024 Snowpack Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Below to much below normal water supply (50-75% of the 1991-2020 normal) is forecast across much of south central WA, southeast WA, and Blue Mountains and the Blue Mountain foothills of WA and OR for the April-September 2024 period Near-normal water supply (75-105%) is forecast across central and north central OR, the Columbia River Gorge, the southern Blue mountains, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Wallowa county Impacts No known impacts at this time Low reservoir levels would be expected to affect agriculture production, fish, and other aquatic species. Image Caption: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Natural Forecast Data Courtesy NOAA NWS Northwest River Forecast Center Issued November 14, 2024 Forecast (% of Normal) Water Supply Forecast - April - September 2024 Forecast (% of normal) Main Takeaways Normal significant wildland fire potential for all areas for November and December 2024 Normal significant wildland fire potential (i.e., very low risk) for all areas for January and February 2025 Significant wildland fires are expected at typical times and intervals during normal significant wildland fire potential conditions Image Caption: Left - November 2024 Right - December 2024 Data Courtesy National Interagency Coordination Center Issued November 1, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts - September through December A progressive weather pattern with a couple of cold fronts will bring rain and mountain snow to the area through late next week. Mountain areas will get a half to 2 inches of precipitation while the lower elevations will get a half inch or less of rain. Visit weather.gov/Pendleton for the latest weather forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways Leaning towards near normal temperatures in western areas and leaning towards below normal temperatures in the east (33-40%) Leaning towards below normal precipitation in most areas (33-50%) except leaning towards near normal precipitation in the Washington Cascades Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 19-23, 2024 6-10 Day Outlook Main Takeaways Leaning towards above normal temperatures (33-40% chance) in the Cascades, Columbia Gorge, central and north central Oregon and leaning towards near normal elsewhere Leaning towards near normal precipitation area-wide Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 21-27, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 2024 Main Takeaways for November Equal chances of above, below or near normal temperatures in all areas Odds favor above normal precipitation area (33-50%) area wide Monthly Climate Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid November and December 2024 and January 2025 Main Takeaways for November-December-January Equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for all areas Odds leaning towards above normal precipitation (33-50%) for most areas except equal chances of above, near and below precipitation in central Oregon Seasonal Climate Outlook Main Takeaways During November, current conditions are expected to persist over areas currently experiencing drought conditions while the Eastern Columbia River Gorge, Simcoe Highlands and western Columbia Basin will continue to have no drought November through January, drought is expected to continue but improve over eastern Kittitas county and either end or continue to have no drought over the rest the region Possible Impact Reduced streamflows and reservoir levels, possible reduction in agricultural yield, crop loss, and poor pasture conditions where irrigation water is not available. Image Captions: Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released October 31, 2024 Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released October 31, 2024 The latest drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. Drought Outlook