Drought Information Statement for Eastern OR & South Central WA Valid October 4, 2024 Issued By: NWS Pendleton Contact Information: pdt.operations@noaa.gov This product will be updated if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/pdt/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Severe Drought continues to affect the eastern Kittitas Valley with Moderate Drought is affecting portions of the central WA Cascades, Kittitas and Yakima counties, Central and North Central OR and portions of northeast OR Abnormally dry conditions continue over most of rest of the area, however, near to above normal precipitation November through this winter is expected to ease drought conditions area wide Normal significant fire potential for October through January (Northwest Coordination Center) Due to impacts from Hurricane Helene, some graphics were unavailable and alternates were used 1 Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Eastern portions of the Kittitas Valley D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of the central Washington and Oregon Cascades, Kittitas and Yakima counties, central and north central Oregon, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, Blue Mountains, Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa County D0: (Abnormally Dry): All other areas except portions of the Eastern Columbia Gorge, Simcoe Highlands and southern Yakima County U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Pendleton, OR One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change No changes Four-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened (1 Class Degradation): No significant areas Drought Improved (1 Class Improvement): Northeastern Kittitas Valley Image Captions: Right - 4 Week Drought Class Change Left - 1 Week Drought Class Change Data Courtesy U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov Data over the past 7 days ending September 24, 2024 Data over the past 28 days ending October 1, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Mostly well below normal precipitation (0-70 percent of normal) in the western portions of the area (0-25 percent of normal in the Cascades, central and north central OR and the western Columbia basin) with below normal precipitation (50-90 percent of normal) in the eastern portions of the area Pockets of above normal precipitation (100-150 percent of normal) in the OR and WA Blue Mountain Foothills and Columbia Basin and northwestern Blue mountains of WA Highest precipitation amounts were 0.50 to 1 inch over the Blue Mountains and eastern Wallowa County Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data over the past 30 days ending October 3, 2024 Precipitation - Last 30 Days Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amounts for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the just concluded 2024 water year ending September 30, 2024 Below normal precipitation (50-100%) for the just concluded 2024 water year over much of the area The exception: areas of near to above normal precipitation (100-120%) from the Ochoco-John Day Highlands north into the southern Blue Mountains, OR Blue Mountain Foothills and western WA Columbia Basin and in small pockets of the OR Cascades and the Eastern Columbia River Gorge Precipitation - 2024 Water Year Near to above normal high temperatures of 0 to 6 degrees above normal the last 7 days over most locations, except for 0 to 3 degrees below normal in the Kittitas Valley and areas of 6-9 degrees above normal in central OR, Ochoco-John Day Highlands, Grande Ronde Valley Mainly near to above normal high temperatures (0-4 degrees above normal) for the last 30 days, except for temperatures 4-6 degrees above normal for portions of the Kittitas Valley and Grande Ronde Valley and temperatures 0-2 degrees below normal for portions of north central OR and southern Blue Mountains Image Captions: Right - Temperature for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the last 7 days and 30 days ending October 3, 2024 Temperature - Last 7 and 30 Days Hydrologic Impacts Much below normal streamflow (<10th percentile) across the Upper and Lower Yakima, Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids, Umatilla and Lower Grand Ronde basins, below normal streamflow (10th-25th percentile) across the Naches, Lower Snake-Tucannon, Lower Snake-Asotin, Upper Grande Ronde, Imnaha, Hells Canyon, Trout, Upper Deschutes and Upper and Lower Crook basins Reservoir levels are nearly all at or below 26% full (2-26% full) with a few outliers (Crane Prairie, Haystack, Ochoco and Prineville) in central Oregon above normal (52-75% full) - this may affect fish and other aquatic species as well as recreation activities through the late summer and early fall, especially in the Columbia Basin. Snowpack Impacts All snow telemetry (SNOTEL) monitoring sites show no remaining snow. There are no known impacts at this time. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Other Impacts Washington Drought Emergency declared for all counties east of the Cascades Jefferson County Oregon Drought Emergency Declared Mitigation actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Summary of Impacts Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid October 3, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid October 3, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Main Takeaways The Upper and Lower Yakima, Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids and Lower Grand Ronde basins have well below normal streamflow (<10 percent of normal) The Naches, Lower Snake-Tucannon and Lower Snake-Asotin basins have below normal streamflow (10th-24th percentile) Other river, stream, and creek flows are near normal (25th-75th percentile) Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Washington Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid October 3, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid October 3, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Oregon Main Takeaways Well below normal (less than 10th percentile) for the Umatilla and Lower Grande Ronde basins Below normal (10th-24th percentile) for the Upper Grande Ronde, Imnaha, Hells Canyon, Trout, Upper Deschutes, Upper and Lower Crook basins Other river, stream, and creek flows are near normal (25th-75th percentile) Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Main Takeaways Normal significant wildland fire potential for all areas for October and November 2024 Normal significant wildland fire potential (i.e., very low risk) for all areas for December 2024 and January 2025 Significant wildland fires are expected at typical times and intervals during normal significant wildland fire potential conditions Image Caption: Left - October 2024 Right - November 2024 Data Courtesy National Interagency Coordination Center Issued October 1, 2024 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Fire Hazard Impacts - September through December High pressure over the western states will keep the region mainly dry though a couple of cold fronts will bring light rain to the mountains and northern portions of the area tonight and next Friday. Most areas will be dry but the Cascade crest could get up to a quarter of an inch of rain while the Columbia Gorge, Blue Mountains and portions of the WA Columbia Basin may get up to a tenth of an inch Visit weather.gov/Pendleton for the latest weather forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways Leaning towards above normal temperatures area-wide (70-90%) Leaning towards below normal precipitation area-wide (33-50%) Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 10-14, 2024 6-10 Day Outlook Main Takeaways Leaning towards above normal temperatures (70-80% chance) area-wide Leaning towards below normal precipitation (33-50% chance) area-wide Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 12 - October 18, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 2024 Main Takeaways for October Equal chances of above, below or near normal temperatures in all areas Odds favor above normal precipitation area (33-40%) along portions of the WA Cascade crest and equal chances of above, below and near normal precipitation in the rest of the area Monthly Climate Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid October, November and December 2024 Main Takeaways for October-November-December Equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for all areas Odds leaning towards above normal precipitation (33-50%) for all areas Seasonal Climate Outlook Main Takeaways During October, current conditions are expected to persist over areas currently experiencing drought conditions while the Eastern Columbia River Gorge, Simcoe Highlands and western Columbia Basin will continue to have no drought October through December, drought is expected to continue but improve over eastern Kittitas county and either end or continue to have no drought over the rest the region Possible Impact Reduced streamflows and reservoir levels, possible reduction in agricultural yield, crop loss, and poor pasture conditions where irrigation water is not available. Image Captions: Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released September 30, 2024 Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released September 30, 2024 The latest drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. Drought Outlook