Drought Information Statement for Eastern OR & South Central WA Valid September 19, 2024 Issued By: NWS Pendleton Contact Information: pdt.operations@noaa.gov This product will be updated if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/pdt/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Severe Drought continues to affect the eastern Kittitas Valley Moderate drought is affecting portions of the central WA Cascades, Kittitas and Yakima counties, Central and North Central OR and portions of northeast OR Abnormally dry conditions continue over most of rest of the area, however, near to above normal precipitation through November is expected to ease drought conditions area wide Normal significant fire potential is forecast for September through December for the entire area (Northwest Coordination Center) 1 Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Eastern portions of the Kittitas Valley D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of the central Washington Cascades, Kittitas and Yakima counties, central and north central Oregon, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, Blue Mountains, and Wallowa County D0: (Abnormally Dry): All other areas except portions of the Eastern Columbia Gorge and Simcoe Highlands U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Pendleton, OR One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Improved (1 Class Improvement): A small portion of Northeast Kittitas County Four-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened (1 Class Degradation): A small portion of the WA and OR Columbia Basin Drought Improved (1 Class Improvement): The Eastern Columbia Gorge and Simcoe Highlands and portions of the WA Cascades, the Yakima Valley and the Kittitas Valley Image Captions: Right - 4 Week Drought Class Change Left - 1 Week Drought Class Change Data Courtesy U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov Data over the past 7 and 28 days ending September 10, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Mostly above normal precipitation in most areas (100-300 percent of normal) Pockets of below normal precipitation (25-100 percent of normal) across central OR, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, Simcoe Highlands, Eastern Columbia River Gorge, western WA Columbia Basin and SE Wallowa county Highest precipitation amounts were 1 to 2 inches along portions of the Cascades, Blue and Wallowa Mountains Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy NWS Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending September 17, 2024 Precipitation - Last 30 Days Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the current water year ending September 17, 2024 Below normal precipitation (50-100%) continues for the current water year over much of the area The exception: areas of near to above normal precipitation (100-120%) across parts of the OR Cascades, Eastern Columbia River Gorge and from the Ochoco-John Day Highlands north into the southern Blue Mountains, OR Blue Mountain Foothills into the western WA Columbia Basin Precipitation - Current Water Year Above normal high temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees above normal the last 7 days over most locations, except for areas of 4-8 degrees above normal in the mountains and WA Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain Foothills Mainly near normal high temperatures the last 30 days, except for temperatures 1-3 degrees above normal for portions of the Blue and Wallowa Mountains and WA Columbia Basin and temperatures 1-3 degrees below normal for portions of central OR north to the Yakima Valley and in the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Image Captions: Right - Temperature for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the last 30 days ending September 14, 2024 Temperature - Last 7 and 30 Days Hydrologic Impacts Much below normal streamflow (<10th percentile) across the Upper Yakima, Upper Columbia-Entiat and Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids basins, below normal streamflow (10th-25th percentile) across the Lower Grande Ronde and Lower Crooked basins Reservoir levels are nearly all at or below 35% full (4-36% full) with a few outliers (Crane Prairie, Haystack, Ochoco and Prineville) in central Oregon above normal (55-74% full) - this may affect fish and other aquatic species as well as recreation activities through the late summer and early fall, especially in the Columbia Basin. Snowpack Impacts All snow telemetry (SNOTEL) monitoring sites show snow has melted/no remaining snow. There are no known impacts at this time. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Other Impacts Washington Drought Emergency declared for all counties east of the Cascades Jefferson County Oregon Drought Emergency Declared Mitigation actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Summary of Impacts Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid September 17, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid September 17, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Main Takeaways The Upper Yakima, Upper Columbia-Entiat and Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids basins have well below normal streamflow (<10 percent of normal) The Lower Grand Ronde basin has below normal streamflow (10th-24th percentile) Other river, stream, and creek flows are near normal (25th-75th percentile) Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Washington Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid September 17, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid September 17, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Oregon Main Takeaways Below normal (10th-24th percentile) for the Lower Crooked and Lower Grande Ronde basins Above normal (76th-90th percentile) for the Willow basin Other river, stream, and creek flows are near normal (25th-75th percentile) Impacts No known impacts at this time Main Takeaways Below to much below normal water supply (50-75% of the 1991-2020 normal) is forecast across much of south central WA, southeast WA, and Blue Mountains and the Blue Mountain foothills of WA and OR for the April-September 2024 period Near-normal water supply (75-105%) is forecast across central and north central OR, the Columbia River Gorge, the southern Blue mountains, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Wallowa county Impacts No known impacts at this time Low reservoir levels would be expected to affect agriculture production, fish, and other aquatic species. Image Caption: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Natural Forecast Data Courtesy NOAA NWS Northwest River Forecast Center Issued September 17, 2024 Forecast (% of Normal) Water Supply Forecast - April - September 2024 Forecast (% of normal) Main Takeaways Normal significant wildland fire potential for all areas for September and October 2024 Near normal significant wildland fire potential (i.e., very low risk) for all areas for November and December 2024 Significant wildland fires are expected at typical times and intervals during normal significant wildland fire potential conditions Image Caption: Left - September 2024 Right - October 2024 Data Courtesy National Interagency Coordination Center Issued September 1, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts - September through December A northwest flow over the Pacific Northwest will give the area a chance of light rain over the Washington Cascades at times during the next week, especially Sunday and Monday Most areas will be dry but the WA Cascade crest could get up to a quarter of an inch or less while the lower elevations of the WA Cascades will get up to a tenth of an inch Visit weather.gov/Pendleton for the latest weather forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways Leaning towards above normal temperatures area-wide (50-70%) Leaning towards below normal precipitation area-wide (33-50%) Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid September 23-27, 2024 6-10 Day Outlook Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures (40-60% chance) in WA and OR Below normal precipitation (33-50% chance) in OR and parts of the eastern Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain Foothills of WA Equal chances of above, below or near normal precipitation in the rest of WA Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid September 25 - October 1, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid September 2024 Main Takeaways for October Equal chances of above, below or near normal temperatures in all areas Odds favor above normal precipitation area (33-40%) along portions of the WA Cascade crest and equal chances of above, below and near normal precipitation in the rest of the area Monthly Climate Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid September, October and November 2024 Main Takeaways for October-November-December Equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for all areas Odds leaning towards above normal precipitation (33-50%) for all areas Seasonal Climate Outlook Main Takeaways During September, current conditions are expected to persist over the area except for drought ending over most of the WA Cascades September through November, drought is expected to improve over eastern Kittitas county and either end or continue to have no drought over the rest of southeast WA and northeast OR Possible Impact Reduced streamflows and reservoir levels, possible reduction in agricultural yield, crop loss, and poor pasture conditions where irrigation water is not available. Image Captions: Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released August 31, 2024 Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released August 31, 2024 The latest drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. Drought Outlook