Drought Information Statement for Eastern OR & South Central WA Valid July 12, 2024 Issued By: NWS Pendleton Contact Information: pdt.operations@noaa.gov This product will be updated if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/pdt/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Severe Drought is affecting portions of the Kittitas Valley Moderate drought is affecting portions of the central WA Cascades, Kittitas Valley, Yakima, Central OR, and extreme northeast OR Abnormally dry conditions continue over most of the rest of the area with mostly well below normal precipitation seen area-wide the last 30 days Above normal significant fire potential is forecast through September for central OR, north central OR, and south and southeast of John Day (Northwest Coordination Center) 1 Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of the Kittitas Valley D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of the central Washington Cascades, the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys, central Oregon, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Wallowa County D0: (Abnormally Dry): All other areas except portions of the OR and WA Columbia Basin and Simcoe Highlands U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Pendleton, OR One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened (1 Class Degradation): Portions of the Yakima Valley, WA Columbia Basin, Southern Blue Mountains, Wallowa County, OR Cascades, central OR, and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Four-Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened (2 Class Degradation): Portions of the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and far southeastern Wallowa County Drought Worsened (1 Class Degradation): Most areas, except portions of the WA Cascades, Simcoe Highlands, Lower Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain Foothills of WA and OR, Northern Blue Mountains, and the Grande Ronde Valley Image Captions: Right - 4 Week Drought Class Change Left - 1 Week Drought Class Change Data Courtesy U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov Data over the past 7 and 28 days ending July 9, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Mainly well below normal precipitation areawide (less than 25 percent of normal) Portions of the Washington Cascade crest was 50 to 75 percent of normal Highest precipitation amounts were 0.5 to 1 inch along portions of the WA Cascade crest, northern Blue, and Wallowa Mountains Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy NWS Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending July 11, 2024 Precipitation - Last 30 Days Image Captions: Right - Precipitation Amount for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the current water year ending July 10, 2024 Below normal precipitation continues for the current water year over much of the area The exception: areas of near to above normal precipitation (100-120%) seen across parts of north central OR and from the Ochoco-John Day Highlands north through the southern Blue Mountains and OR Blue Mountain Foothills into the western WA Columbia Basin. This could largely be attributable to precipitation in December 2023, January 2024, and May 2024 Precipitation - Current Water Year Mainly above normal highs the last 30 days, except near to slightly below normal average temperatures in the central WA Cascades, Yakima and Kittitas Valleys, and portions of the eastern Simcoe Highlands Well above normal highs (> 4 degrees) in portions of the Oregon Cascades, central Oregon, and portions of the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Average low temperatures were mainly within a couple of degrees of normal except for 2-4 degrees below normal in the Grande Ronde Valley Average high temperatures were mainly 0-4 degrees above normal except for 4-6 degrees above normal across portions of central and north central OR, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa County Image Captions: Right - Temperature for Pacific NW Left - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Pacific NW Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center Data for the last 30 days ending July 8, 2024 Temperature - Last 30 Days Hydrologic Impacts Below to well below normal streamflow (10-25%) across the Upper and Lower Yakima, Naches, Upper Columbia-Entiat, Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids, Lower Snake, Lower Snake-Tucannon and Lower Snake-Asotin, Upper John Day, Lower Crooked, North Fork and Middle Fork John Day, Upper and Lower Grande Ronde, Wallowa and Imnaha basins, above to well above normal (76-100%) for the Willow and Umatilla basin, elsewhere near normal streamflows (25-75%). Reservoir levels are near to slightly below normal (60-90%) with a few outliers below to well below normal (35-55%) - this may affect fish and other aquatic species as well as recreation activities through the summer, especially in the Columbia Basin. Snowpack Impacts All snow telemetry (SNOTEL) monitoring sites show snow has melted/no remaining snow. There are no known impacts at this time. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Other Impacts Washington Drought Emergency declared for all counties east of the Cascades Mitigation actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Summary of Impacts Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid July 11, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid July 11, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Main Takeaways The Upper and Lower Yakima, Naches, Upper Columbia-Entiat, Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids, Lower Snake, Lower Snake-Tucannon and Lower Snake-Asotin basins have below normal streamflow (10th-24th percentile) Most other river, stream, and creek flows are near to below normal Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Washington Main Takeaways All reporting river, stream, and creek flows across eastern and central OR are near to below normal, notably: Well below normal for the Columbia River at The Dalles Well below normal for the Upper John Day basin Above normal for Willow Creek near Heppner, Umatilla River at Umatilla and Meacham Creek near Gibbon Impacts No known impacts at this time Reduced streamflow may be detrimental to aquatic species and recreational activities. Image Captions: Right - USGS 7-day average streamflow station map valid July 11, 2024 Left - USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid July 11, 2024 Data Courtesy USGS Water Watch Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Oregon Main Takeaways The mountain snowpack is gone at all locations in the mountains of Northeast Oregon and Southeast Washington Impacts No known impacts at this time Snow water equivalent is related to the amount of water stored in snowpack. The lack of snow can affect the amount of available water for spring and summer snow melt. This can have impacts on water storage, irrigation, fisheries, vegetation, municipal water supplies, and wildfire. Image Captions: Oregon and Washington SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent % of Normal Data Courtesy USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Daily Value as of July 11, 2024 Snowpack Conditions and Impacts ay l 4% 8% Main Takeaways Below to much below normal water supply (55-85% of the 1991-2020 normal) is forecast for the April-September 2024 period across much of south central and southeast WA into northeast Oregon Below-normal water supply (75-90%) is forecast across much of north central OR, Wallowa, and parts of the eastern slopes of the WA Cascades Near-normal water supply (83-103%) is forecast across central OR east into the southern Blue mountains and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Impacts No known impacts at this time Low reservoir levels would be expected to affect agriculture production, fish, and other aquatic species. Image Caption: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Natural Forecast Data Courtesy NOAA NWS Northwest River Forecast Center Issued July 10, 2024 Forecast (% of Normal) Water Supply Forecast - April - September 2024 Forecast (% of normal) Main Takeaways Above normal for central and north central OR and south and southeast of John Day for July through September 2024 Near normal wildland fire potential (i.e., very low risk) for all other areas through October 2024 Significant wildland fires are expected at typical times and intervals during normal significant wildland fire potential conditions Image Caption: Left - July 2024 Right - August 2024 Data Courtesy National Interagency Coordination Center Issued July 1, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts - July through October Persistent high pressure over the western CONUS will keep the area dry for the next 7 days This weekend, a few thunderstorms may bring very light rain amounts of less than a tenth of an inch to the higher terrain of the Blue and Wallowa Mountains, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and central OR Visit weather.gov/Pendleton for the latest weather forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways Leaning towards above normal temperatures area-wide (50-80%) Leaning towards above normal precipitation (33-50%) towards western WA, except for equal chances of above, near and below normal in the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Blue Mountains eastward Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 17-21, 2024 6-10 Day Outlook Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures (33-60% chance) in WA and OR Above normal precipitation (33-40% chance) in WA and OR Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 19 - July 25, 2024 8-14 Day Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 2024 Main Takeaways for July Odds favor above normal temperatures area wide (40-70%) Odds favor below normal precipitation area wide (50-60%) Monthly Climate Outlook Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid July, August and September 2024 Main Takeaways for July-August-September Odds leaning towards normal temperatures except leaning towards above normal temperatures (33-50%) for the eastern half of the area Odds leaning towards normal precipitation area-wide except leaning towards below normal precipitation (33-40%) for the northern Blue Mountains of WA and Wallowa County Seasonal Climate Outlook Main Takeaways Drought is expected to persist along the east slopes of the central and northern WA Cascades Drought is expected to develop over most of eastern WA, central OR and northeast OR These areas are vulnerable due to below normal precipitation and the warm seasonal outlook Possible Impact Reduced streamflows and reservoir levels, possible reduction in agricultural yield, crop loss, and poor pasture conditions where irrigation water is not available. Image Captions: Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released June 30, 2024 Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released June 30, 2024 The latest drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. Drought Outlook