Drought Information Statement For East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and Southwest North Carolina Valid November 16, 2023 Issued By: WFO Morristown, TN Contact Information: sr-mrx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated in the next week or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mrx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the NWS Morristown CWA Drought conditions continue to worsen across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Much of southeast Tennessee into parts of the central valley. D3 (Extreme Drought): Southern Plateau, rest of southeast Tennessee, much of the central valley and northern Plateau, and Cherokee and Clay counties of North Carolina. D2 (Severe Drought): Rest of the northern Plateau and parts of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. D1 (Moderate Drought): Rest of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small part of northern Russell county Virginia. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for the Southern Appalachians Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Much of east Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. No Change: Parts of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. Drought Improved: None. Precipitation Notably drier than normal conditions have been occurring across the region. Temperature Temperatures have been above normal during the past 4 weeks. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Stream flows remain low Agricultural Impacts Dry weather has hampered small grain and fall hay seedings. Pasture conditions continue to decline this week. Soil moisture is much lower than normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Tennessee Forestry reported an increase in fire activity across the entire area. A mountain wave high wind event is possibly early next week across the mountains and foothills. These conditions will produce extreme fire behavior. Other Impacts Stay tuned for future updates as drought is likely to worsen in many areas. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. . Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows have been below normal to much below normal for most areas. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid 11/15/2023 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is much drier than normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire conditions are deteriorating across the entire area. Any Mountain Wave High Wind Events will cause extreme fire behavior. Latest TN Burn Ban map available here. Latest VA Burn Ban map available here. Latest NC Burn Ban information available here. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Precipitation is expected during the next 7 days. Best chances of precipitation will be late Friday and Friday night, and again Monday night and Tuesday. Potential of much needed rainfall area-wide especially early next week. Highest precipitation amounts will be across the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina where ½ to 1 inch is possible. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. No hazards posted. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Above normal temperatures and near to slightly above normal precipitation are favored over the next month. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage An improvement in drought conditions are expected across much of the area through next month.