Drought Information Statement For East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and Southwest North Carolina Valid November 2, 2023 Issued By: WFO Morristown, TN Contact Information: sr-mrx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated in the next week or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mrx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the NWS Morristown CWA Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT October 31st. Drought conditions continue to worsen across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None. D3 (Extreme Drought): Southern Plateau, much of southeast, and parts of central Tennessee valley. D2 (Severe Drought): Much of the northern Plateau, central Tennessee valley, southeast Tennessee mountains, and southwest North Carolina. D1 (Moderate Drought): much of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, and parts of the northern Plateau. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small parts of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee mountains. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for the NWS Morristown CWA Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Most of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. No Change: Small portions of southwest Virginia and the northern Plateau. Drought Improved: None. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid October 26th. Precipitation Notably drier than normal conditions have been occurring across the region. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending October 25, 2023 Temperature Temperatures have been near to slightly below normal during the past 4 weeks. Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature Right - Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending October 25, 2023 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Stream flows remain low Agricultural Impacts Dry weather has hampered small grain and fall hay seedings. Pasture conditions declined this week. Soil moisture is lower than normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Tennessee Forestry reported a small increase in small fires across the area. Other Impacts Stay tuned for future updates as drought is likely to worsen in many areas. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. . Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows have been below normal to much below normal for most areas. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid 10/25/2023 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is drier than normal. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid Oct 25, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending Oct 21, 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Fire conditions are slowly deteriorating across the area. Latest TN Burn Ban map available here. Latest VA Burn Ban map available here. Latest NC Burn Ban information available here. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire for October and November 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Some light precipitation is expected during the next 7 days – mainly on October 30 and November 1. Overall amounts will be low with little impact on drought improvement. Highest precipitation amounts will be across the northern Plateau, northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid October 27 to November 3. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. No hazards posted. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid October 26th to November 1st Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation are favored over the next month. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 2023 Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought development is likely to continue this month. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released September 30, 2023 valid for October 2023 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook