Issued By: WFO Mobile/Pensacola Contact Information: sr-mob.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 5, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. DROUGHT INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST Extreme drought has developed along a small portion of the interior southeast MS, southwest AL state borders. Severe drought lingers along the Alabama River and points west. Moderate drought has expanded, encompassing much of the remainder of the area. Drought Information Statement for southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western FL Panhandle Valid 11/7/2024 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the SE US and central Gulf Coast Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): southeast Wayne and northeast Greene Co’s in MS and western Washington Co. AL D2 (Severe Drought): Along the AL River, southward to Mobile Co. and points west into much of the remainder of interior southeast MS. D1 (Moderate Drought): Along and southeast of I-65 over the interior of south central AL. Coastal Baldwin into the western FL Panhandle. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for the SE US and central Gulf Coast One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Over portions of the interior. Baldwin Co. AL, eastward to the western FL Panhandle sees the largest area of one class degradation. No Change: The remainder of the local area did not see a change in drought intensity over the past week. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, an almost entirety of the central Gulf coast has experienced less than 25% of normal rainfall, the exception being very isolated spots that received between 25 and 50% of normal rainfall. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates that flow and stage on many local area river and stream points remain below to much below normal. Rivers and streams that are experiencing below normal stages, may result in typically deeply submerged objects being likely closer to the water’s surface or in some cases exposed, presenting a waterway hazard for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that topsoil moisture in the states of MS and AL has degraded to very dry levels against the 5 and 10 year means for this time of year. The longer term drought conditions though have contributed to Alabama's worst pine beetle outbreak since 2001, leading to widespread damage (Source: AL Political Reporter, Montgomery AL). Supplemental feeding initiatives are required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts The Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a Fire Danger Advisory for ALL counties in AL - October 30th, 2024. This advisory is effective immediately and will remain in place until enough precipitation is received to improve drought impacts. Dead pines in area forests which have been devastated by southern pine beetles over the summer are adding to the increased wildfire potential, as well as challenges to containment efforts. The National Interagency Fire Center in Boise ID calls for November to be at above normal risk for wildfire for MS, AL and the western FL Panhandle. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged until conditions improve. Mitigation Actions Water conservation techniques are strongly encouraged in drought areas. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Local water restriction ordinances may be in place. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Several local area rivers and streams are running below to much below normal in flow and stage. To view the most current stages and flow for each state’s, stream and river points, please visit: MS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=ms&m=real AL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=al&m=real FL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=fl&m=real Agricultural Impacts Crop condition in the driest of areas is very poor. Crop disease and insect damage elevated. Pasture lands provide little to no livestock feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. Considering the state-wide top soil moisture metrics, the states of MS and AL are very dry versus the 5 year means: (Upper 6” Moisture Depth, courtesy of USDA 11/3/24). - MS: 57% Short to Very Short (Avg: 29.8%). - AL: 68% Short to Very Short (Avg: 39.0%). - FL: 34% Short to Very Short (Avg: 23.4%). It is recommended that farmers reach out to local USDA office for details on available funding assistance. Fire Hazard Impacts The Alabama Forestry Commission has placed all Alabama counties are under a Fire Danger Advisory. The National Interagency Fire Center out of Boise, ID has outlooked the month of November for MS, AL and the western FL Panhandle as above normal for wildfire risk. Decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands pose an above normal risk for development and spread of fire. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Precipitation forecast amounts into the first half of November range from 0.75” to 1.25”, with a few pockets of locally higher amounts, favored to be focused over Mobile Co. AL, eastward into the western FL Panhandle. Long-Range Outlooks Above normal temperatures are favored over the deep south for November. There are equal chances of above or below normal November precipitation favored for the central Gulf coast. Drought Outlook The seasonal drought outlook to close out 2024 and opening up the new year 2025 favors drought to persist over a large portion of the central Gulf coast.