Issued By: WFO Mobile/Pensacola Contact Information: sr-mob.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 31, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. DRYNESS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST The central Gulf coast continues to experience abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Drought Information Statement for southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western FL Panhandle Valid 10/03/2024 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the SE US and central Gulf Coast Drought intensity and Extent D1 (Moderate Drought): Mobile Co. AL, northward to eastern portions of interior southeast Mississippi, eastward into much of the interior of southwest and south central AL. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remainder of interior southeast MS to Choctaw Co. AL. Baldwin Co. AL, eastward to the western FL Panhandle. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Mobile Co. AL saw a one to two class degradation in drought the past week. Portions of interior southeast MS saw a one class degradation. No Change: Central portions of the local area saw no change in drought over the past week. Drought Improved: A one class improvement was reflected over a small portion of the interior of the western FL Panhandle, northward into the interior of south central AL. Precipitation Outside of a small zone over the far eastern zones, seeing the outer periphery western rain band from Hurricane Helene, the remainder of the area saw little to no rainfall the past week. Isolated pockets of well above normal at 200-300% of rainfall occurred the past week over the northeast tier of zones, attributed to Helene’s western rainband. For the remainder of the central Gulf coast, well below normal at 0-25% of normal weekly rainfall occurred entering the month of October. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates that flow and stage on many local area river and stream points, generally focused over coastal southwest AL into the western Florida Panhandle, have remained below to much below normal over the past week. Rivers and streams that are running below normal in stage, may result in typically deeply submerged objects being likely closer to the water’s surface or in some cases exposed, presenting a waterway hazard for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that topsoil moisture in the states of MS, AL, and FL has improved over the last week with all three states wetter than the 5 and 10 year means for this time of year. The longer term drought conditions though have contributed to Alabama's worst pine beetle outbreak since 2001, leading to widespread damage (Source: AL Political Reporter, Montgomery AL). Supplemental feeding initiatives are required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts Data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Predictive Services Unit indicates the most significant wildland fire potential will shift more westward across eastern TX, eastern OK and western AR through October. For the remainder of the local area, decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands will promote favorable conditions for fire growth and spread. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Mitigation Actions Water conservation techniques are strongly encouraged in drought areas. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Local water restriction ordinances may be in place. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Several local area rivers and streams over coastal AL and the western FL Panhandle continue below to much below normal in flow and stage over the past week. To view the most current stages and flow for each state’s, stream and river points, please visit: MS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=ms&m=real AL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=al&m=real FL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=fl&m=real Agricultural Impacts Crop condition in the driest of areas is very poor. Crop disease and insect damage elevated. Pasture lands provide little to no livestock feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. There have been improvements in the latest state-wide top soil moisture metrics vs 5 year means: (Upper 6” Moisture Depth, courtesy of USDA 09/29/24). - MS: 18% Wetter than Normal (Avg: 49%). - AL: 30% Wetter than Normal (Avg: 48.4%). - FL: 11% Wetter than Normal (Avg: 22.8%). It is recommended that farmers reach out to local USDA office for details on available funding assistance. Fire Hazard Impacts Decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands pose an above normal risk for development and spread of fire. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A gradient of higher rainfall amounts look to set up right near the coast and out over the open Gulf as a broad area of low pressure forms. A general 1 to 2 inches of storm total rains is forecast for the period Friday October 4th into early Sunday October 6th, generally along the coast. North of the coast, precipitation amounts look to be lighter and below an inch into the weekend. The rest of next week looks dry. Long-Range Outlooks A look at the October outlook for temperature is favored to see equal chances of above or below normal numbers. In the precipitation department, amounts are favored to lean above normal for the central Gulf Coast. Drought Outlook The seasonal drought outlook through the end of 2024 favors an improvement or an end to drought.