Issued By: WFO Mobile/Pensacola Contact Information: sr-mob.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated September 12, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. SEVERE DROUGHT RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST Drought becomes severe for interior of southwest AL, along and east of I-65 including much of the western Florida Panhandle. Moderate drought is in place for much of the remainder of the local area. Drought Information Statement for southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western FL Panhandle Valid 09/05/2024 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Lower Alabama River valley, eastward across the I-65 corridor. Much of the western Florida Panhandle. D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of the remainder of southwest AL, westward into Greene and Wayne Counties MS. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remainder of interior southeast MS, into central and northern Mobile county AL. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Eastern half of the local area and into portions of interior southeast MS. No Change: For the remainder of the local area. Precipitation Table Shows Rainfall Totals for Select Sites 8/1/24 to 9/4/24. Includes NWS ASOS and COOP Sites. Station Rainfall Normal % of Normal Downtown Mobile AL 1.55 7.79 19.9% Destin FL 1.50 6.71 22.4% Waynesboro MS 2W 1.29 5.06 25.5% Pensacola FL 1.28 8.39 15.3% Mobile AL 2.29 7.61 30.1% Pensacola FL 7NNE 1.72 7.55 22.8% Crestview FL 2.22 7.14 31.1% Niceville FL 1.44 10.12 14.2% Bay Minette AL * 0.84 8.11 10.4% Middleton Field Evergreen AL *0.42 5.89 7.1% Brewton AL 3NNE * 0.40 7.82 5.1% Wiggins MS 2.30 6.96 33.0% * Indicates Record Lowest for Period Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates many area rivers and streams at below to much below normal stage and flow. Low stages bring a multitude of hazards. Typically, deeply submerged objects will likely be closer to the water’s surface or in some cases exposed, presenting a waterway hazard for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts Data from US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that topsoil moisture in both MS and AL is short to very short by 62% or very dry while the state of FL, as a whole is 14% dry. All three states are much drier than the 5 and 10 year means for this time of year. Drought conditions have contributed to Alabama's worst pine beetle outbreak since 2001, leading to widespread damage (Source: AL Political Reporter, Montgomery AL). Supplemental feeding initiatives are required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts Data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Predictive Services Unit indicates the most significant wildland fire potential will be focused over the Mid-South in September. For the remainder of the local area, decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands will promote favorable conditions for fire growth and spread. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Mitigation Actions Water conservation techniques are strongly encouraged in drought areas. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Local water restriction ordinances may be in place. Hydrologic Conditions Select River/Creek Data from 9/5/24 River/Stream Point Discharge(cfs) Stage(ft) %Class Rating Blackwater River near Bradley AL 16 0.64 1 Low Sepulga River near McKenzie AL 19 2.65 5 MBN Escambia River near Century FL 874 2.85 5 MBN Styx River near Elsanor AL 112 1.55 6 MBN Conecuh River at Brantley AL 34 0.81 6 MBN Shoal River near Crestview FL 360 2.85 6 MBN Juniper Creek near Niceville FL 64 6.44 9 MBN Chickasawhay River at Leakesville MS 377 7.83 11 BN Pascagoula River at Merrill MS 1340 2.76 12 BN Hamilton Creek near Semmes AL 11 3.19 18 BN Ratings: Low, MBN: Much Below Normal, BN: Below Normal To view the most current stages and flow for each state’s, stream and river points, please visit: MS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=ms&m=real AL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=al&m=real FL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=fl&m=real Agricultural Impacts Crop condition in the driest of areas is very poor. Crop disease and insect damage elevated. Pasture lands provide little to no livestock feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. Leading to very poor crop condition is the short to very short subsoil moisture makeup being well above normal. The latest state-wide top soil moisture metrics vs 5 year means. (Depth upper 6”, courtesy of USDA 09/01/24). - MS: 62% Very Dry (Avg: 33.8%). - AL: 62% Very Dry (Avg: 20.6%). - FL: 14% Dry (Avg: 9.4%). It is recommended that farmers reach out to local USDA office for details on available funding assistance. Fire Hazard Impacts Decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands pose an above normal risk for development and spread of fire. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A wave of surface frontal low pressure passes eastward late in the week, along a stalled front draped across the northern Gulf. This feature is anticipated to bring much needed rainfall to the central Gulf coast with the higher amounts more focused along the immediate coast with potential of 2 to 6”. A general 1 to 2” is forecast over the interior. Long-Range Outlooks September’s outlook for temperature and precipitation is leaning above normal for the central Gulf coast. Drought Outlook The expectation of above normal September rainfall suggests that this occurrence of drought will be of short duration.