Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid January 18, 2023 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov This is the last scheduled update until D2 conditions return. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D1: (Moderate Drought): Affecting Richland, Jasper, Crawford, Clay, and Effingham Counties. Portions of (northern) Lawrence, (southern) Cumberland, and Clark Counties are affected as well. D0 (Abnormally dry): Focused south of a Shelbyville to Danville line in east central Illinois including Shelby, Coles, Edgar, Cumberland, and Clark Counties. Portions of Schuyler and Scott Counties in west central Illinois are included as well. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Virtually everywhere along and south of I-72. Schuyler and Cass Counties improved as well. No Change: Much of central and southeast Illinois remained status quo. Precipitation Rainfall over the last 30 days is generally 150-200% of normal across central and southeast Illinois, with most of the area receiving 2-3 inches of rain. Last 30 days Temperature Despite the cold snap last weekend, temperatures across central Illinois have generally ranged from 2-4 degrees above normal (1-3 degrees above normal in southeast Illinois). Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions None reported Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows have increased to the 76-90th percentile across much of central Illinois, and 25-75th percentile across the remainder of central and portions of southeast Illinois. Large water sources continue to have a surplus of water, including Lake Shelbyville which has a water level running around 7 feet above normal. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid January 17, 2023. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture at the 20 cm level is generally in the 20-70th percentile across central Illinois - near to slightly above normal. Agricultural impacts are not significant at this time, as crops are harvested or dormant at this time of year Image Captions: Left: 1-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid January 13, 2023 Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending January 17, 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Image Captions: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid August 31, 2023 Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A couple of weather systems are on track to bring light precipitation to central and southeast IL over the next week. Forecast amounts are from 0.1” to 1” across the area, which could potentially ease drought conditions to some extent. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The ongoing El Niño pattern favors higher odds of precipitation being below normal for February, as well as through the winter. Monthly outlook (issued last day of month) Seasonal outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Monthly outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist or develop in much of southeast, east-central, and west-central IL much of the winter. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released January 18, 2024 valid for January through April Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook