Drought Information Statement for The Central Tennessee Valley December 13, 2024 Issued By: WFO Huntsville, AL Contact Information: sr-hun.webmaster@noaa.gov Drought has worsened over the past month with a continuation of below normal precipitation. This statement will be updated if or when drought conditions or impacts change significantly in the next several weeks. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/hun/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/dews/Southeast DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH SEVERE OR WORSE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 7 AM CDT, December 10, 2024. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): A small area in southwest Lincoln County, and north-central Limestone County D3 (Extreme Drought): Areas from northern Limestone and northwest Madison, through western Lincoln and northern Moore Counties D2 (Severe Drought): Much of north-central portions of the area and southern Middle Tennessee; from far southeast Franklin County (AL), through Lawrence, Morgan, southern/western Limestone, Madison, and into Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin (TN) Counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Areas around northwest and northeast Alabama, including a small area in southeast Franklin (TN) County. D0 (Abnormally Dry): Portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties, and areas from Cullman County northeastward through southern Marshall and much of DeKalb Counties. Huntsville One-Week Change in Drought Intensity National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Four-Week U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: None No Change: Most of the area Drought Improved: Various areas in northern Alabama, including northwest Lauderdale and southeast Franklin County (AL), along with a small swath from eastern Morgan and northwestern Marshall Counties northeastward through eastern Madison, northern Jackson and far southeastern Franklin Counties Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid ending 7AM CDT November 26, 2024. Precipitation - Past 30 Days National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Left - 30-Day Precipitation Totals, Right - 30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation. Data ending Dec 13, 2024. Main Takeaways Precipitation ending December 12th totaled around 2-3 inches in about the northwest half of the area, with higher amounts around 3-6 inches in the southeast half. Rainfall was around 50-75% of normal for most locations, but was a little above normal in southeastern portions of the area in parts of Marshall and DeKalb Counties. Summary of Impacts National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Hydrologic Impacts The marked swings from deficits to surpluses in rainfall since the summer began have produced no significant hydrologic (streamflow) issues, other than a Major Flood that resulted on Big Nance Creek due to the impacts from tropical cyclone Francine. Most of the impacts have been associated with low soil moisture, while some impacts have also occurred with low or dry well levels in some areas. Agricultural Impacts USDA Crop and Progress Condition Reports in the early summer indicated crops had been negatively impacted due to the hot, dry weather, with corn, soybeans, cotton, hay and pastures all being affected. However, the most significant damage occurred specifically to the corn crop. More recently, reports had continued to indicate poor grazing conditions, with the need to supplement with hay, and very low water in creeks and retention ponds. Some producers had experienced delays with planting winter wheat due to the dry conditions. Please see the 2024 Crop and Progress Condition Reports for Alabama and Tennessee from the USDA. Fire Hazard Impacts As reported by the Alabama Forestry Commission, since late June over 1000 acres have burned in northern Alabama within the Huntsville County Warning and Forecast Area. This includes the following larger fires: 100 acres in Colbert County (controlled on Sep 10th), 130 acres in Lawrence County (controlled on September 17th), and 135 acres in Colbert County (controlled on June 26th). Mitigation Actions All TN and AL counties in the Huntsville County Warning and Forecast Area have been included in a USDA Secretarial Disaster Declaration for Drought. Go to this link for more information: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/disaster-assistance-program/disaster-designation-information/index On July 17, 2024, The Alabama Dept. of Economic and Community Affairs - Office of Water Resources placed Drought Regions 1 and 3 (which encompasses all of the Huntsville, AL NWS County Warning and Forecast Area) in a Drought Watch. This remains in effect. Hydrologic Conditions National Weather Service Huntsville, AL 14-Day average streamflows remain mostly in the 10-24th percentile range for most areas, but ~10th ranking percentile are observed in portions of Limestone County. The lowest recent flows have occurred along the Elk River at Prospect, TN (5th percentile), Paint Rock River (11th percentile), Big Nance Creek (12th percentile), (18th percentile), and Limestone Creek near Athens (13th percentile) Lake Stages remain generally near normal Reservoir/ Lake Pool Elevation (ft) Current Elevation (ft) Percent Full Bear Creek 568 568 100% Little Bear Creek 609 609 100% Cedar Creek 567 567 100% Tim’s Ford 874 876 >100% Nickajack 633-635 634 Within Operating Range (WOR) Guntersville 593-594 594 WOR Wheeler 551-552 552 WOR Wilson 506-508 506 WOR Pickwick 408-410 410 WOR Lewis Smith 496 500 >100% Table caption: Reservoir conditions as of Dec 12, 2024 Figure Caption: USGS 14-day streamflow percentiles for Tennessee and Alabama, valid Dec 12, 2024 Lake Stages 14-Day Avg Streamflow Percentiles Agricultural Impacts - Soils National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Per the latest NASA SPoRT soil moisture data, 0-200 cm relative soil moisture has increased generally around 4-10% over the last 30 days. Although soil moisture has increased, moisture levels still remain below average for this time of year. 0-200 cm soil moisture values are still around the 5th to 20th ranking percentiles for much of the area. Image Captions: Left: NASA SPoRT 1-Month Difference in 0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture, ending Dec 13, 2024 Right: NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center 0-200 cm Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile based on a 33-year climatology (1981-2013), Dec 13, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have fallen in the past several weeks with values generally ranging from 200-400. NWS offices may issue Red Flag Warnings when KBDI values climb above 300 in Alabama, although other weather criteria based on wind speeds and relative humidity must also be met. The Alabama Forestry Commission uses the KBDI as a system for relating current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected fire behavior. It is a numerical index calculated daily for each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of rain, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil back to saturation. The index ranges from 0 to 800, with 0 representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil. On Oct 30th, the Alabama Forestry Commission expanded a Fire Danger Advisory to cover all counties in Alabama, but that was later rescinded for all counties on November 15th. Burn Permits are required in Tennessee from Oct 15 to May 15 for debris pile fires in areas without local restrictions. Left Image Caption: Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for the Continental U.S., estimated for Nov 28, 2024 Right Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, January 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Forecast Precipitation (Dec 13 - Dec 20): Rainfall is forecast to range from around 0.75 inch in southeast portions of the area to about 2.00 inches in northwest portions of the area over the 7-day period ending December 20th. Around 1.25 - 1.50 inches of precipitation is normal for this time of year for a weekly period. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast, valid Dec 12-19, 2024 Monthly Outlooks - December 2024 The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL For December, odds are slightly in favor (33-40%) of Above Normal Temperatures for the period. It’s important to note that the Monthly Outlook includes probabilities for 3-categories: Above, Near, and Below Normal Temperatures. For December, there are Equal Chances for Below, Near, or Above Normal Precipitation for the majority of the Tennessee Valley region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Outlooks for Temperatures (left) and Precipitation (right) for December 2024 Seasonal Outlooks - December to February The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Main Takeaways Temperatures: Above Normal Temperatures are moderately favored (40-50% probability) for nearly all of the area for the December to February period. Precipitation: Below Normal Precipitation is slightly favored for about the southeast half of the area for the period. Equal Chances for Below, Near, or Above Normal Precipitation is outlooked for the remainder of the area. Possible Impact Drought conditions may remain nearly steady or deteriorate across the area. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlooks for Temperatures (left) and Precipitation (right) for October-December 2024 Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL As of the latest Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought conditions are expected to generally persist across current drought-stricken areas. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook