Drought Information Statement for The Central Tennessee Valley January 10, 2025 Issued By: WFO Huntsville, AL Contact Information: sr-hun.webmaster@noaa.gov Drought continues for most areas, but conditions have improved overall since early December. This statement will be updated if or when drought conditions or impacts change significantly in the next several weeks. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/hun/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/dews/Southeast MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS SOME CENTRAL AREAS AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 7 AM CDT, January 7, 2025 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None D3 (Extreme Drought): About the northern half of Moore County and portions of northern Lincoln County D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of Franklin, Moore and Lincoln Counties in Tennessee. In Alabama, mainly portions of Limestone and Lawrence Counties, along with small areas of eastern Lauderdale and Franklin Counties, and northwest Morgan County D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of southern Lincoln and Franklin Counties (TN), and much of northern Alabama, including the Huntsville metro D0 (Abnormally Dry): Portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties, and areas from Cullman County northeastward through southern Marshall, much of DeKalb County and a small area of southern Jackson County Huntsville One-Month Change in Drought Intensity National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Four-Week U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: A very small area on the border of northeast Moore and northwest Franklin Counties No Change: Most of the area Drought Improved: Various areas in northern Alabama, including locations from eastern Morgan through southern/eastern portions of Madison, northern Jackson, and far southeast Franklin County (TN)...also, a swath from northern Limestone into northwest Madison Counties, small portions of southwest Lincoln, northwest Lauderdale and southeast Franklin (AL) Counties. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid ending 7AM CDT December 31, 2024. Precipitation - Past 30 Days National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Left - 30-Day Precipitation Totals, Right - 30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation. Data ending Jan 10, 2025. Main Takeaways Precipitation ending January 10, 2025 totaled mainly around 4-6 inches. Rainfall was generally near 75-90% of normal for most locations, but was a little above normal mainly in portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties. Summary of Impacts National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Hydrologic Impacts The marked swings from deficits to surpluses in rainfall since the summer began have produced no significant hydrologic (streamflow) issues, other than a Major Flood that resulted on Big Nance Creek due to the impacts from tropical cyclone Francine. Most of the impacts have been associated with low soil moisture, while some impacts have also occurred with low or dry well levels in some areas. Agricultural Impacts USDA Crop and Progress Condition Reports in the early summer indicated crops had been negatively impacted due to the hot, dry weather, with corn, soybeans, cotton, hay and pastures all being affected. However, the most significant damage occurred specifically to the corn crop. More recently, reports had continued to indicate poor grazing conditions, with the need to supplement with hay, and low water in creeks and retention ponds. Some producers had experienced delays with planting winter wheat due to the dry conditions. Please see the 2024 Crop and Progress Condition Reports for Alabama and Tennessee from the USDA. Fire Hazard Impacts As reported by the Alabama Forestry Commission, since late June over 1000 acres have burned in northern Alabama within the Huntsville County Warning and Forecast Area. This includes the following larger fires: 100 acres in Colbert County (controlled on Sep 10th), 130 acres in Lawrence County (controlled on September 17th), and 135 acres in Colbert County (controlled on June 26th). Mitigation Actions All TN and AL counties in the Huntsville County Warning and Forecast Area have been included in a USDA Secretarial Disaster Declaration for Drought. Go to this link for more information: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/disaster-assistance-program/disaster-designation-information/index On July 17, 2024, The Alabama Dept. of Economic and Community Affairs - Office of Water Resources placed Drought Regions 1 and 3 (which encompasses all of the Huntsville, AL NWS County Warning and Forecast Area) in a Drought Watch. This remains in effect. Hydrologic Conditions National Weather Service Huntsville, AL 28-Day average streamflows remain ~10th ranking percentile mainly for portions of the Elk River basin. Otherwise, streams in Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin Counties are generally in the 10-24th percentile over the 28-day period (averaged), with similar percentiles in portions of northeast and northwest Alabama. Otherwise, streams are considered in the Normal range elsewhere in northern Alabama. Lake Stages remain generally near to a little above normal Reservoir/ Lake Pool Elevation (ft) Current Elevation (ft) Percent Full Bear Creek 566 567 >100% Little Bear Creek 608 609 >100% Cedar Creek 566 566 100% Tim’s Ford 870 874 >100% Nickajack 633-635 633 Within Operating Range (WOR) Guntersville 593-594 594 WOR Wheeler 551-552 552 WOR Wilson 505-506 505 WOR Pickwick 408-410 411 Slight Above Lewis Smith 498 502 >100% Table caption: Reservoir conditions as of Jan 09, 2025 Figure Caption: USGS 28-day streamflow percentiles for Tennessee and Alabama, valid Jan 01, 2025 Lake Stages 28-Day Avg Streamflow Percentiles Agricultural Impacts - Soils National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Per the latest NASA SPoRT soil moisture data, 0-200 cm relative soil moisture has increased generally around 8-12% over the last 30 days. Although soil moisture has increased, moisture levels still remain below average for this time of year. 0-200 cm soil moisture values are still around the 10th to 20th ranking percentiles or lower for much of the area. Image Captions: Left: NASA SPoRT 1-Month Difference in 0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture, ending Jan 10, 2025 Right: NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center 0-200 cm Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile based on a 33-year climatology (1981-2013), Jan 10, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) began to fall in the late fall as warmer weather subsided and the region began to experience greater rainfall. Values have not been updated since Dec 17, 2024, but were generally around 200-400. NWS offices may issue Red Flag Warnings when KBDI values climb above 300 in Alabama, although other weather criteria based on wind speeds and relative humidity must also be met. The Alabama Forestry Commission uses the KBDI as a system for relating current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected fire behavior. It is a numerical index calculated daily for each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of rain, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil back to saturation. The index ranges from 0 to 800, with 0 representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil. Burn Permits are required in Tennessee from Oct 15 to May 15 for debris pile fires in areas without local restrictions. Predictive Services at the SACC indicates Normal Wildland Fire Potential conditions for February, 2025 Left Image Caption: Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for the Continental U.S., estimated for 17 Dec, 2025 Right Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, February 2025 Seven-Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Forecast Precipitation (Jan 10 - Jan 17): Rainfall is forecast to range from around 0.75 to 1.00 inch for the area over the next week through January 17, 2025, but this includes expectations for melted snowfall from the Jan 10, 2025 event. Around 1.25 - 1.50 inches of precipitation is normal for this time of year for a weekly period. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast, valid Jan 10-17, 2025 Monthly Outlooks - January 2025 The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL For January, odds are slightly in favor (33-40%) for Above Normal Temperatures for the period. It’s important to note that the Monthly Outlook includes probabilities for 3-categories: Above, Near, and Below Normal Temperatures. For January, there are generally Equal Chances for Below, Near, or Above Normal Precipitation for the majority of the Tennessee Valley region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Outlooks for Temperatures (left) and Precipitation (right) for December 2024 Seasonal Outlooks - January to March The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL Main Takeaways Temperatures: Above Normal Temperatures are moderately favored (40-50% probability) for nearly all of the area for the December to February period. Precipitation: For the January to March period, there are Equal Chances for Above, Near, or Below Normal Precipitation for the majority of the area, although there is a slight chance (33-40%) for Above Normal Precipitation mainly for portions of Lauderdale and Lincoln Counties. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlooks for Temperatures (left) and Precipitation (right) for January to March 2025 Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal drought outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Huntsville, AL As of the latest Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought conditions are expected to improve or end across the area during the period. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook