Drought Information Statement for Tri-State Area Valid October, 03, 2024 Issued By: NWS Goodland, Kansas Contact Information: nws.goodland@noaa.gov This product will be updated by the 5th of each month or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/GLD/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Drought continues to worsen across the area. Warm and dry conditions look to continue for the foreseeable future. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for High Plains Image Caption: Goodland County Warning Area Drought Monitor. Valid Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Sherman, Thomas, Sheridan, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace D1 (Moderate Drought): Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins, Decatur, Norton, Graham, Logan, Kit Carson D0: Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow, Wichita, Greeley, Gove. 6am MDT Oct 03, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for CONUS 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Red Willow, Dundy, Hitchcock, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Sherman, Wallace No Change: Gove, Wichita, Greeley, Graham, Logan, Sheridan, Thomas, Norton, Decatur, Rawlins, Cheyenne (KS), Yuma. Improvement: Localized areas from mid September rainfall nothing significant and could be from reorientations of the drought monitor areas. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 6am MDT Oct 03, 2024 Precipitation September in general was a dry month across the area with the majority of the area seeing below normal precipitation. Localized area of above normal precipitation was observed in the east due to a mid September rain. Image Captions: Right - Monthly Precipitation Amount for Tri-State Area Left - Percent of Normal Monthly Precipitation for Tri-State Area Data Courtesy of National Water Prediction Center. Date Valid: Oct 03 2024 Temperature Above normal temperatures were the story across the good majority of the Plains not just the Tri-State area for the past month. The warm conditions and the lack of precipitation is part of the main drivers in the worsening drought conditions. Image Captions: Right - 7 Day Temperature Anomaly Left - 30 Day Temperature Anomaly Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Date Valid: Oct 03 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found here USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found here Fire Hazard Impacts Continued lack of rainfall and above normal temperatures and continued worsening drought conditions will continue to bring increasing fire spread concerns as fuels rapidly dry ahead of the first fall freeze. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts No know impacts at this time as much of the Tri-State Area remains normal or below normal. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid Oct 03 2024 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains dry for most of the area; however with the recent rainfall could see this improving. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending Sep 28, 2024 Oct 03 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Despite not being outlook for significant wildland fire potential there are some increasing concerns for fire spread as fuels continue to dry. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. October 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unfortunately for the area there is no clear cut sign of rainfall for at least the next seven days and perhaps even longer than that. This continues to bring continuing concerns that drought will continue to worsen. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday October 3 to Thursday June 10 Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage A continued signal for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is seen throughout the end of the year. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage CPC continues to suggest that drought will continue to expand or persist across the majority of the area through the end of the year. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released Valid: Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook October 2024 May 31, 2024 ENSO Outlook We spent some time this spring messaging a drier summer that really didn’t pan out for most. A slower transition to La Nina may have played a role in this as ENSO has remained closer to Neutral through the summer but is now trending more towards La Nina which is what was anticipated a few month ago which is part of the reason for the recent dry and warm spell the region has been under. ENSO Outlook A favored probability of La Nina continuing through the winter is seen which would favor continued above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. This does not mean it will not snow or get colder but typically does favor the area being more prone to more shorter lived but stronger cold air outbreaks. Contact Information For feedback, comments, questions specific to the Drought Information Statement please reach out to: nws.goodland@noaa.gov or tyler.trigg@noaa.gov