Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS  
Valid Dec. 21, 2023
Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE
Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov
This product will be updated in January 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 

U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought Intensity and Extent:

D4 Exceptional Drought: 
Includes all or part of the following counties: 
Nance, Merrick, Polk, Hall, Hamilton, York

D3 Extreme Drought:
Includes all or part of the following counties: 
Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Rooks, Mitchell

D2 Severe Drought:
Includes all or part of the following counties: 
Greeley, Nance, Howard, Buffalo, Hall, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell

D1 Moderate Drought: 
Includes all or part of the following counties: 
Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell

D0 Abnormally Dry: 
Includes all or part of the following counties:
Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Dawson, Buffalo, Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Furnas, Harlan, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith, Jewell
           

Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) 
- Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor “data week” Dec. 13-19: 
(NOTE: any rain that fell since 7am TUESDAY “didn’t count” for this week’s Drought Monitor)
The Dec. 13-19 “Drought Monitor Week” featured a highly-beneficial precipitation event for roughly the southeastern two-thirds of our coverage area (for most places almost entirely in the form of RAIN). Within much of this area, widespread precip totals of 0.50-1.50” were common, with parts of north central KS even seeing localized slightly higher totals. 

Unfortunately, roughly the northwestern one-third of our area missed out on much of this precipitation, with totals in those areas ranging from almost nothing (including the Ord/Lexington areas) up to around 0.25” (including the Kearney area). 

- Looking ahead Dec. 22-28 :
There is a good chance for at least SOME measurable precipitation across our entire coverage area mainly between Dec. 23-26 as a slow-moving low pressure system traverses the region and brings a variety of precipitation types. However, current computer models vary significantly regarding just how much might fall. Officially, cumulative forecast precipitation from WPC for the Dec. 22-28 calls for a widespread 0.50-1.00” across our coverage area.


Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change
One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: 
Drought Worsened: 
NO AREAS of degradation this week

No Change:
The VAST MAJORITY of the NWS Hastings coverage area featured NO CHANGE this week

Drought Improved: 
1-category improvement included parts of the following counties: 
- Hamilton, York, Clay, Fillmore  (D4 to D3) 
- Much of mainly north central KS counties 
(varied mix of D3 to D2…D2 to D1…D1 to D0…
D0 to None)


Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change 
NWS Hastings 4-week & 12-week Drought Class Changes…vs. current Dec. 19 maps
4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-category improvement within much of KS area along with mainly parts of Hamilton, York, Clay counties
12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1 or 2 category improvement across roughly HALF of the area (very little degradation)


Precipitation (Last 7 Days)
Main Takeaways:
The Dec. 13-19 “Drought Monitor Week” featured a highly-beneficial precipitation event for roughly the southeastern two-thirds of our coverage area (for most areas almost entirely in the form of RAIN). Within much of this area, widespread precip totals of 0.50-1.50” were common, with parts of north central KS even seeing localized slightly higher totals. 

Unfortunately, roughly the northwestern one-third of our area missed out on much of this precipitation, with totals in those areas ranging from almost nothing (including the Ord/Lexington areas) up to around 0.25” (including the Kearney area). 


Precipitation (Last 30 Days)
Main Takeaways:
The latest 30-day period was  a “split story across our coverage area. 

On the “good news” side of things, roughly the southeast two-thirds of our coverage area measured a widespread 1-2” (localized higher), which was near-normal to roughly twice normal. 

Unfortunately, roughly the northwest one-third of our coverage area did not fare as well, with below-normal totals of mainly 0.25-0.75” more common. 


Precipitation (Last 90 Days)
Main Takeaways:
The latest 90-day period was certainly a “mixed bag” across our coverage area. 

On the best-off side of things, a roughly “C-shaped” swath through our coverage area…including at least the majority of several northern, west-central and south central counties…picked up near-to-above normal totals  mainly in the 4-6” range (localized higher around 7”). 

Meanwhile, the majority of  especially some far northeastern counties (such as Polk/Merrick) and also far southwestern counties (such as Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) received at least modestly-below normal precipitation mainly only in the 2.00-3.50” range. 


Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days)
Main Takeaways 
(Last 30 Days):
Temperatures over the last 30 days have averaged out modestly ABOVE-NORMAL across our entire coverage area, with most places mainly between 1-3° above normal. 


Summary of Impacts
Hydrologic Impacts: 
Of all river basins in our coverage area, the Little Blue and Big Blue basins in south central/eastern portions of our Nebraska coverage area currently exhibit the lowest streamflows (versus normal) and are considered to be in moderate to severe hydrologic drought.

Agricultural Impacts:
USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php

Fire Hazard Impacts:
There are no known significant impacts at this time, but given that most vegetation is dry/dormant and given ongoing drought conditions, any afternoons with low relative humidity (especially 20% or lower) and strong winds (especially gusts of 25+ MPH) will feature potentially critical fire danger and possible Red Flag Warnings 

Other Impacts:
There are no known impacts at this time

Mitigation Actions:
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Main Takeaways:
Of all river basins in our coverage area, the Little Blue and Big Blue basins in south central/eastern portions of our Nebraska coverage area currently exhibit the lowest streamflows (versus normal) and are considered to be in moderate to severe hydrologic drought. 


7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Main Takeaways:
There is a good chance for at least SOME measurable precipitation across our entire coverage area mainly between Dec. 23-26 as a slow-moving low pressure system traverses the region and brings a variety of precipitation types. However, current computer models vary significantly regarding just how much might fall. 

Officially, cumulative forecast precipitation from WPC for the Dec. 22-28 calls for a widespread 0.50-1.00” across our coverage area.


8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid Dec. 28-Jan. 3
Main Takeaways:
Temperatures: Our entire coverage area features a slight lean toward above normal temperatures 
Precipitation: Nearly our entire coverage area features a slight lean toward below normal precipitation. 


Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For JANUARY 2024 
Main Takeaways:
Temperatures: Nearly our entire coverage area is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal temperatures.
Precipitation: Our entire area is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal precipitation 


Drought Outlook (Seasonal)
Main Takeaways:
Based on current longer-range forecasts, unfortunately all portions of our coverage area that are currently in a drought category (at least D1/Moderate) are expected to remain in some category of drought (meaning drought will persist). 


Contact Information & References
National Weather Service
Hastings, Nebraska
For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET:

NWS Hastings:

Ryan Pfannkuch
ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov

Mike Moritz
michael.moritz@noaa.gov

(402) 462-2127


Other contacts for NE/KS drought input:

UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience
Eric Hunt, Ph.D.
ehunt2@unl.edu
(402) 617-4190

Kansas State University
Assistant State Climatologist
Matthew Sittel
msittel@ksu.edu
(785) 532-1087

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between 
the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration.