Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid Nov. 16, 2023 Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov This product will be updated in December, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 Exceptional Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Merrick, Polk, Hall, Hamilton, York, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls, Thayer D3 Extreme Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D2 Severe Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Nance, Howard, Buffalo, Hall, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D1 Moderate Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith, Jewell D0 Abnormally Dry: Includes all or part of the following counties: Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Dawson, Buffalo, Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Furnas, Harlan, Franklin, Webster, Phillips,Smith Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of precipitation Nov. 9-15: (NOTE: any rain that fell since 7am TUESDAY “didn’t count” for this week’s Drought Monitor) The Nov. 9-15 period featured ZERO PRECIPITATION across the vast majority of our coverage area. Only parts of of a few southeastern local counties received very meager rain amounts…mainly no more than a few hundredths of an inch. - Looking ahead November 17-23: Fortunately for ongoing drought concerns, there appears to be a GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN across our entire coverage area mainly on Sunday-Monday, Nov. 19-20, with dry weather likely to prevail prior to this (Nov. 17-18) and also after this (Nov. 21-23) Officially, cumulative precipitation for the Nov. 17-23 time frame from the very latest WPC forecast is forecast to range from 0.50-1.00” across most of our coverage area. Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: NO AREAS of degradation this week No Change: The ENTIRE NWS Hastings coverage area featured NO CHANGE this week Drought Improved: NO AREAS of improvement this week Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change NWS Hastings 4-week & 12-week Drought Class Changes…vs. current Nov. 14 maps 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-category improvement common especially north and west (no degradation) 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-2 category improvement in much of the west half...1-category degradation various pockets in east half Precipitation (Last 7 Days) Main Takeaways: The Nov. 9-15 period featured ZERO PRECIPITATION across the vast majority of our coverage area. Only parts of of a few southeastern local counties received very meager rain amounts…mainly no more than a few hundredths of an inch. Precipitation (Last 30 Days) Main Takeaways: The latest 30-day period featured MUCH BELOW NORMAL precipitation across the vast majority of our coverage area. The MAJORITY of our area received somewhere between 0.10-0.75” (generally 5-45% of normal) . The very-driest locations were mainly concentrated within our KS coverage area along with counties along the Highway 81 corridor in Nebraska (highest concentration of totals under 0.25”). On the fortunate/wetter side of things, there were very limited areas of near-to-above normal precipitation primarily within parts of Greeley and Gosper counties (highest concentration of totals around or slightly over 1.50”). Precipitation (Last 90 Days) Main Takeaways: The latest 90-day period featured BELOW NORMAL precipitation across the majority of our coverage area, but amounts were also highly variable. The MAJORITY of our area received somewhere between 3-7” (generally 45-110% of normal) The overall-driest counties were Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell in our Kansas coverage area, and York/Polk in our Nebraska coverage area (highest concentration of totals under 3”) On the fortunate/wetter side of things, there were various pockets of slightly above normal precipitation (totals mainly 6.50-8.50”) dotted throughout several counties mainly along/west of the Highway 281 corridor (including parts of Greeley, Dawson, Gosper, Kearney and northern Phillips) Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) Main Takeaways (Last 7 Days): Temperatures over the 7-day period Nov. 9-15 averaged out as significantly ABOVE-NORMAL across our entire coverage area, with most places between 6-8° above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: Of all river basins in our coverage area, the Little Blue and Big Blue basins in south central/eastern portions of our Nebraska coverage area currently exhibit the lowest streamflows (versus normal) and are considered to be in severe to extreme hydrologic drought. Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: There are no known significant impacts at this time, but given that most vegetation is dry/dormant and given ongoing drought conditions, any afternoons with low relative humidity (especially 20% or lower) and strong winds (especially gusts of 25+ MPH) will feature potentially critical fire danger and possible Red Flag Warnings Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions: Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways: Of all river basins in our coverage area, the Little Blue and Big Blue basins in south central/eastern portions of our Nebraska coverage area currently exhibit the lowest streamflows (versus normal) and are considered to be in severe to extreme hydrologic drought. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways: Fortunately for ongoing drought concerns, there appears to be a GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN across our entire coverage area mainly on Sunday-Monday, Nov. 19-20, with dry weather likely to prevail prior to this (Nov. 17-18) and also after this (Nov. 21-23) Officially, cumulative precipitation for the Nov. 17-23 time frame from the very latest WPC forecast (unfortunately not shown here) is forecast to range from 0.50-1.00” across most of our coverage area. 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid November 24-30 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area features a lean toward below normal temperatures (long-range ensemble model data calls for high temps mainly in the 30s-40s/lows mainly in the 20s). Precipitation: Most of our coverage area is favored for “near normal” precipitation, with some northern/eastern counties assigned a slight lean toward below normal precipitation. Long-Range (3 Month) Outlooks - CPC CPC 3-Month Temperature and Precipitation Outlook…Valid For DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY Main Takeaways: Temperatures: The vast majority of our coverage area is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal temperatures. Precipitation: Our entire coverage area is indicated to have a slight lean toward above normal precipitation. Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Main Takeaways: Based on current longer-range forecasts, our coverage area is a “mixed bag” regarding drought trends through February 2024. Drought is currently forecast to persist in most of our central/eastern Nebraska coverage area. Drought is currently forecast to improve across much of our north central KS coverage area. Contact Information & References For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: NWS Hastings: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.