Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid Feb. 22, 2024 Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov This product will be updated in March 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska D3 Extreme Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Any lingering D3 was removed from the NWS Hastings coverage area as of the Feb. 13th USDM. D2 Severe Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Kearney, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Rooks, Smith, Osborne, Jewell, Mitchell D1 Moderate Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Nance, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D0 Abnormally Dry: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Furnas, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor data week Feb. 13-19: (NOTE: any precipitation that fell since 7am TUESDAY did not count for this weeks Drought Monitor) The Feb. 13-19 Drought Monitor Week was overall-dry across our coverage area. The only precipitation event consisted of a round of light snow mainly during the morning hours of Friday the 16th. Snowfall in most places was 1 inch or less, and melted liquid precipitation equivalent in most spots only ranged from a Trace up to around 0.10. - Looking ahead Feb. 23-29: Our forecast is pretty much guaranteed dry through Tues AM (Feb. 27 ). However, mainly Tues night-Wed daytime (Feb. 27-28) there is a chance for precipitation (likely mainly in the form of snow) across our entire area. At this time, this does not look appear to be a major snow event (currently favors up to a few inches at most). The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for only 0.05 to 0.15 of liquid precipitation equivalent across most of our coverage area. Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: NO AREAS of degradation this week No Change: There was NO CHANGE in drought categories within the entire NWS Hastings coverage area this week Drought Improved: NO AREAS of improvement this week Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska NWS Hastings 4-week and 12-week Drought Class Changes vs. current Feb. 20 maps 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-category improvement various southern/western counties places, 2-category improvement in Rooks County 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1-2 category improvement, isolated THREE-CATEGORY improvement especially in KS Precipitation (Last 7-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The Feb. 13-19 Drought Monitor Week was overall-dry across our coverage area. The only precipitation event consisted of a round of light snow mainly during the morning hours of Friday the 16th. Snowfall in most places was 1 inch or less, and melted liquid precipitation equivalent in most spots only ranged from a Trace up to around 0.10. Precipitation (Last 30-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The latest 30-day period featured ABOVE NORMAL precipitation across the majority (but not quite all) of our coverage area. The majority of our area received between 0.50-1.50 of total liquid equivalent, or roughly 70 to 215 percent of normal. The vast majority of this precipitation fell during a rare, early-February ALL RAIN event between Feb. 2nd-4th. The overall-wettest counties (greatest concentration of totals in excess of 1.25) focused in KS along with Nebraska counties southwest of the Tri Cities. The overall-driest areas (greatest concentration of totals only around 0.50 or less) focused in parts of far north/northeast east counties such as: Valley, Greeley and Polk. Precipitation (Last 90-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The latest 90-day period featured ABOVE NORMAL precipitation across the vast majority (but not quite all) of our coverage area. The majority of our area received between 2.00-4.50 of total liquid equivalent…or roughly 95-215 percent of normal. Meteorological winter 2023-24 has provided widespread, beneficial precipitation, much of which fell in the form of RAIN. Some of the very-wettest counties (including some totals at least 4.50-5.50) focused within the southeast one half to two thirds of our area. The overall-driest counties (greatest concentration of around 2.50 or less) focused within the northwest third of our area (especially counties such as Furnas, Gosper, Dawson). Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) Main Takeaways (Last 7 Days): The last week has been OVERALL-WARM across our entire coverage area, with most places averaging 4-6 degrees above normal, as one of the warmest months of February on record continued. In fact, over the last 30 days, most of the area has averaged at least 6-9 degrees above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: There are no known significant impacts at this time. That being said, prevailing dry and warmer-than-normal weather over the last few weeks has prompted a gradual increase in at least near-critical fire weather conditions on any upcoming afternoons with low relative humidity (especially 25 percent or lower) and breezy wind gusts (especially at least 20 MPH). Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions: Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways: Any substantial ice coverage from earlier this winter has since flushed out of our area rivers. Near-normal to even above normal streamflows prevail within the Loup and Platte River basins in our central and northern NE coverage area Unfortunately, below normal flows (including pockets of moderate to severe hydrologic drought) are indicated within the southern half of our coverage area, with the overall-lowest streamflows focused along the Little Blue and Big Blue basins in south central and southeast portions of our Nebraska coverage area. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways: Our forecast is pretty much guaranteed dry through at least Tuesday morning (Feb. 27). However, mainly Tues night-Wed daytime (Feb. 27-28) there is a chance for precipitation (likely mainly in the form of snow) across our entire area. At this time, this does not look appear to be a major snow event (currently favors up to a few inches at most). The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for only 0.05-0.15 of liquid precipitation equivalent across most of our coverage area. 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, Valid Feb. 29 - March 6 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area features a likely lean toward above normal temperatures. Daily highs look to mainly fluctuate between the 40s-60s. Precipitation: Most of our coverage area favors near-normal weekly precipitation, although a slight lean toward above normal precipitation technically brushes our extreme northeast counties. Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For MARCH 2024 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area (and well beyond in all directions) is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal precipitation Precipitation: Our entire coverage area features at least a slight lean toward above normal March precipitation. Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Main Takeaways: Going hand in hand with an expected slight lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that those parts of our coverage area currently assigned any drought category are expected to either observe some degree of improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. Contact Information & References National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.