Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid Jan. 19, 2024 Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov This product will be updated in February 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 Exceptional Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: ** D4 removed from NWS Hastings area as of Dec. 28th USDM ! ** D3 Extreme Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Rooks D2 Severe Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D1 Moderate Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Nance, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D0 Abnormally Dry: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Dawson, Buffalo, Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Furnas, Harlan, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith, Jewell Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor data week Jan. 10-16: (NOTE: any precipitation that fell since 7am TUESDAY didn’t count for this weeks Drought Monitor) The Jan. 10-16 Drought Monitor Week was highlighted by the 2nd fairly significant winter storm in a 4-day period (which occurred Jan. 11-12). This storm dumped 2-10 inches of snow on most of our coverage area, (highest concentration of 6+ inches near and east of Highway 281 in Nebraska), and also caused significant blowing/drifting snow. Total liquid equivalent precipitation for the week generally ranged from as little as 0.10-0.30 inches in most of north central KS along with Nebraska counties west of Highway 281, to as much as 0.30-0.70 inches within the majority of local Nebraska counties along/east of Highway 281. - Looking ahead Jan. 20-26: Our forecast is dry through at least Sun night/early Mon AM (Jan. 22). However, between Monday daytime and Friday (Jan. 22-26) there are various, low probability/low confidence chances for intermittent precipitation…which could take various forms (rain, snow, possible wintry mix). However, the latest forecast model data is in good agreement that the cumulative AMOUNT of precipitation during this time should remain fairly light…likely no more than 0.10-0.20 inches for most of our coverage area (in other words, no MAJOR storm systems anticipated). Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: NO AREAS of degradation this week No Change: There was NO CHANGE in drought categories within the entire NWS Hastings coverage area this week Drought Improved: NO AREAS of improvement this week Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change NWS Hastings 4-week & 12-week Drought Class Changes…vs. current Jan. 16 maps 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-category improvement various places…spotty 2-category improvement in Polk/Nance counties 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1 category improvement…isolated 2-category improvement (hardly any degradation!) Precipitation (Last 7-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The Jan. 10-16 Drought Monitor Week was highlighted by the 2nd fairly significant winter storm in a 4-day period (which occurred Jan. 11-12). This storm dumped 2-10 inchers of snow on most of our coverage area, (highest concentration of 6+ inches near and east of Highway 281 in Nebraska), and also caused significant blowing/drifting snow. Total liquid equivalent precipitation for the week generally ranged from as little as 0.10-0.30 inches in most of north central KS along with Nebraska counties west of Highway 281, to as much as 0.30-0.70 inches within the majority of local Nebraska counties along/east of Highway 281. Precipitation (Last 30-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The latest 30-day period featured WELL ABOVE NORMAL precipitation across most all of our coverage area! The majority of our area received between 0.75-2.00 inches of total liquid equivalent…or roughly 100-285 percent of normal. Some of the very-wettest counties (including some totals at least 2.00-2.50 inches) focused along Highway 81 in our far eastern coverage area. The overall-driest county in our coverage area was Furnas, but even there totals of at least 0.50 inches were common. Precipitation (Last 90-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The latest 90-day period featured somewhat of a mixed bag, across our coverage area, but with an overall lean toward the positive side of things. The majority of our area received between 2.00-4.50 inches of total liquid equivalent…or roughly 55-125 percent of normal. In other words, most places at least had somewhat near to slightly above normal precipitation Some of the very-wettest counties (including some totals at least 4.50-5.00 inches) focused within KS, along with various Nebraska counties mainly along/east of Highway 281. The overall-driest counties (highest concentration of around 2 inches or less) were in our far western coverage area (parts of Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) Main Takeaways (Last 7 Days): The last week has been INCREDIBLY-COLD across our entire coverage area, with most places averaging around 25 degrees below normal! Not only have several daily cold temperature records been set (for both cold low temps and high temps), but the ground has become significantly and deeply frozen for the first time this winter, with the reported Jan. 18th frost depth at the NWS Hastings down to 24 inches! Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: There are no known significant impacts at this time, as recent very cold weather and widespread snow cover across nearly our entire coverage area has significantly limited any fire weather threat. Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions: Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways: Now that we are in the heart of winter and plentiful ice has formed on area streams/rivers, it is more difficult to assess streamflows given that many automated gauges are being affected by ice. That being said, at least slightly below normal flows are currently indicated in various parts of our coverage area. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways: Our forecast is “guaranteed” dry through at least Sun night/early Mon AM (Jan. 22). However, between Monday daytime and Friday (Jan. 22-26) there are various, low probability/low confidence chances for intermittent precipitation…which could take various forms (rain, snow, possible wintry mix). However, the latest forecast model data is in good agreement that the cumulative AMOUNT of precipitation during this time should remain fairly light…likely no more than 0.10-0.20 inches for most of our coverage area (in other words, no MAJOR storm systems anticipated). 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid Jan. 26-Feb. 1 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area features a “likely” lean toward above normal temperatures. Daily highs look to be mainly in the 30s/40s and lows mainly in the 20s. Precipitation: Our entire coverage area features a slight lean toward below normal precipitation Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For FEBRUARY 2024 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Nearly our entire coverage area features a slight lean toward above normal temperatures Precipitation: Our entire coverage area (and well beyond it in all directions) is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal precipitation Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Main Takeaways: Based on current longer-range forecasts, the expectation of overall above-normal precipitation during the February-April time frame is expected to at least improve remaining drought conditions within our coverage area, if not remove it entirely. Contact Information & References National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: NWS Hastings: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.