Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona 
Valid December 24, 2023
Issued By: WFO Flagstaff, AZ
Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov
This product will be updated January 18, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. 

U.S. Drought Monitor

EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN PARTS OF GILA COUNTY

Drought intensity and Extent
D3 (Extreme Drought): West central Gila County
D2 (Severe Drought): Southeast Yavapai, Gila, extreme southern Coconino, southern Navajo, southern Apache counties. 
D1 (Moderate Drought): Central Yavapai, south central Coconino, south central Navajo, central and northern Apache County.
D0: (Abnormally Dry): northern Yavapai, most of Coconino, northern Navajo counties.

Precipitation
120-day rainfall has been less than 50% of normal for much of Yavapai and Coconino counties.  
Less than 70% of normal rainfall has fallen since late August for much of Navajo and Apache counties.

Temperature
Most of Arizona was 1-3 degrees warmer than normal over the past 30 days. Portions of eastern Yavapai and Coconino counties were 3-5 degrees warmer than normal.


Summary of Impacts
Hydrologic Impacts 
Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in east central and northwest Arizona, and in the normal range for the remainder of the area.

Agricultural Impacts
Soil moisture is below the 30th percentile in southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache Counties. Portions of Yavapai and Gila are below the 5th percentile.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Recent precipitation and cooler temperatures has decreased fire risk across the northern and central portions of Arizona. However, a few wildfires have still occurred in Yavapai County in December.

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Streamflow is well below normal for this time of year in east central and northwest Arizona.

Agricultural Impacts
Soil moisture is below the 30th percentile in southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache Counties. Portions of Yavapai and Gila are  below the 5th percentile.

Fire Hazard Impacts
A drier than normal monsoon through early winter has left fuels drier than usual for this time of year. 
Rain received on
Dec 22-23 improved conditions, but fire danger still remains moderate in parts of northern Arizona.

Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The latest outlooks for January through March 2024 from the Climate Prediction Center indicate equal chances for below, near, and above normal temperatures.  
Odds are slightly tilted toward wetter than normal conditions over most of Arizona with the exception of the far southeast part of the state.

Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Drought conditions are forecast to improve over southeast Yavapai, northern Gila, and southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties through March 2024.