Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid November 22, 2023 Issued By: WFO Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 21, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN PARTS OF GILA COUNTY Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): West central Gila County D2 (Severe Drought): Southeast Yavapai, Gila, extreme southern Coconino, southern Navajo, southern Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Central Yavapai, south central Coconino, south central Navajo, central and northern Apache County. D0: (Abnormally Dry): northern Yavapai, most of Coconino, northern Navajo counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Northern Gila, southeast Yavapai, southern Coconino, southern Navajo, southern Apache County. No Change: Remainder of northern Arizona. Precipitation 120-day rainfall has been less than 50% of normal for western Yavapai and much of Gila County. Less than 70% of normal rainfall has fallen since late July over the remainder of Yavapai, Gila, and southern Navajo and Apache Counties. Temperature Most of Arizona was 1-3 degrees warmer than normal over the past 30 days. Portions of eastern Yavapai County were 3-5 degrees warmer than normal. Summary of Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in east central and northwest Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is below the 30th percentile in southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache Counties. Portions of Yavapai and Gila are below the 5th percentile. Fire Hazard Impacts A drier than normal monsoon and fall has left fuels drier than usual for this time of year. This is allowing prescribed fire season to continue across northern Arizona with a few wildfires. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow is well below normal for this time of year in east central and northwest Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is below the 30th percentile in southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache Counties. Portions of Yavapai and Gila are below the 5th percentile. Fire Hazard Impacts A drier than normal monsoon and fall has left fuels drier than usual for this time of year, and this will persist until significant precipitation occurs. Prescribed fire season continues in northern Arizona with a few wildfires. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for December 2023 through February 2024 from the Climate Prediction Center indicate equal chances for below, near, and above normal temperatures and precipitation. Odds are slightly tilted toward wetter than normal conditions over most of Arizona with the exception of the southeast part of the state. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over the southeast half of Arizona through at least January 2024.