Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid March 20, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around April 17, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates?dews_region=130&state=139 for regional updates. Wetter weather in March improved drought slightly along parts of the Mogollon Rim. Little change in drought status elsewhere, with widespread severe to extreme drought. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Extreme southwest Yavapai County. D3 (Extreme Drought): Gila County, much of Yavapai County, extreme southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Southern/western Coconino County, southern/central Navajo and Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: One class improvement along parts of the Mogollon Rim including Flagstaff and Happy Jack. Drought Worsened: One class degradation for parts of western Yavapai and eastern Apache counties. No Change: most of Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal for much of northeastern Arizona and northwest Coconino County. A small area in the Flagstaff region and along the Mogollon Rim has received 50-75% of normal. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in eastern Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is lower than normal and may lead to poor forage conditions in spring if dryness persists. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary in a more typical winter. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has decreased into the low to moderate category at least temporarily due to rain and snow received in the first half of March. Less precipitation fell in the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest and fire restrictions are already in effect, much earlier than normal. Drier and warmer weather is forecast for the latter half of March, and conditions could worsen again. There is a potential for an extended and significant fire season if dry weather persists into spring. Other Impacts Winter recreation has been impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of eastern Arizona is less than the 25th percentile for this time of year. Some of the normally wettest areas of the state along the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains are experiencing much below normal streamflow values in the 10th percentile or lower. Agricultural Impacts Most of northern Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the 1st to 5th percentile. Forage for ranching purposes was less abundant than normal in summer 2024 due to a drier than usual monsoon season. Ranchers are also hauling water to livestock which is unusual in winter. Low soil moisture could lead to poor spring forage if the dryness persists. Fire Hazard Impacts Fuel moisture has improved due to rain and snow in the first half of March, but drier and warmer weather is forecast to the second half of March. By May and June, the typical peak of fire season, there is an above normal potential for significant wildland fire in most of Arizona. If dry conditions persist, there is a potential of an extended and significant wildfire season. Long-Range Outlooks The latest outlooks for April through June from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in Arizona. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over the state through the end June.