Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid February 22, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around March 20, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Very dry weather leads to worsening drought conditions Coverage of Severe and Extreme drought expands in central and northern Arizona U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Gila County, much of Yavapai County, extreme southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Southern/western Coconino County, southern/central Navajo and Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: One category degradation for most of northern Arizona, with two category degradation in northeast Yavapai County and portions of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. No Change: Northwest Yavapai County and portions of the Chuska Mountains. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal for most of Arizona. A small area in the Flagstaff region and along the Mogollon Rim is near 50% of normal. Temperature Yavapai and Gila County were slightly cooler than normal over the past 30 days. The remainder of northern Arizona experienced near to slightly above normal temperatures. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is much lower than normal and may lead to poor forage conditions in spring if dryness persists. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary in a more typical winter. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has decreased into the moderate category at least temporarily due to precipitation in mid February, but could increase again if dry weather returns. There is a potential for an extended and significant fire season if dry weather persists into spring. Other Impacts Winter recreation has been impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of Arizona is less than the 25th percentile for this time of year. Some of the normally wettest areas of the state along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains are experiencing much below normal streamflow values in the 10th percentile or lower. Agricultural Impacts Most of northern Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the 1st to 5th percentile. Forage for ranching purposes was less abundant than normal in summer 2024 due to a drier than usual monsoon season. Ranchers are also hauling water to livestock which is unusual in winter. Low soil moisture could lead to poor spring forage if the dryness persists. Fire Hazard Impacts Fuels are drier than normal for February, bringing a current risk of wildfire which is unusual for winter. By April and May, there is an above normal potential for significant wildland fire in much of the eastern half of Arizona including the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. If dry conditions persist, there is a potential of an extended and significant wildfire season. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for March through May from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in Arizona. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over the state through the end May.