Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid February 6, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around February 20, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Very dry weather leads to worsening drought conditions Coverage of Severe and Extreme drought expands in central and northern Arizona Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Yavapai County, portions of eastern Gila County, extreme southern Navajo and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Southern/western Coconino County, northwest Gila County, southern/central Navajo County, southern Apache County. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: One category degradation for most of northern Arizona, with two category degradation from Flagstaff to Grand Canyon, northeast Yavapai County and northern Apache County. No Change: Northwest Gila County and the Page area. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal for most of Arizona. A small area in the Flagstaff region is near 50% of normal, but this precipitation fell in mid to late October with very little since that time. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is much lower than normal and may lead to poor forage conditions in spring if dryness persists. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger is high due to dryness. There is a potential for an extended and significant fire season if the dry weather persists into spring. Other Impacts Winter recreation has been impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of Arizona is less than the 25th percentile for this time of year. Some of the normally wettest areas of the state along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains are experiencing much below normal streamflow values in the 10th percentile or lower. Agricultural Impacts Most of northern Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the 1st to 5th percentile. Forage for ranching purposes was less abundant than normal in summer 2024 due to a drier than usual monsoon season. Low soil moisture could lead to poor spring forage if the dryness persists. Fire Hazard Impacts Fuels are much drier than normal for February, bringing a current risk of wildfire which is unusual for winter. By April and May, there is an above normal potential for significant wildland fire in much of the eastern half of Arizona including the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. If dry conditions persist, there is a potential of an extended and significant wildfire season. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for February through April from the Climate Prediction Center are leaning toward above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook is leaning towards drier than normal in most of the state, with drier than normal likely in east central and southeast Arizona. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist or worsen over the state through the end of April.