Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid January 31, 2024 Issued By: WFO Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated February 15, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN PARTS OF GILA COUNTY Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): West central Gila County D2 (Severe Drought): Southeast Yavapai, Gila, extreme southern Coconino, southern Navajo, southern Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Central and western Yavapai, southern Coconino, south central Navajo, central and northern Apache County. D0: (Abnormally Dry): northern Coconino and Navajo counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Northern Gila, southeast Yavapai, southern Coconino, southern Navajo, southern Apache County. No Change: Remainder of northern Arizona. Precipitation 120-day precipitation has been less than 50% of normal for much of Yavapai and Coconino counties and along the Mogollon Rim into northern Gila County. The majority of the remainder of northern Arizona has received 50-90% of normal precipitation since early October. Temperature Most of Arizona was cooler than normal over the past 30 days. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is well below normal for streams originating on the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains as well as much of western Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is below the 20-30th percentile for most of northern Arizona, and below the 5-10th percentile in portions of Yavapai County. Fire Hazard Impacts A drier than normal monsoon through mid winter has left fuels drier than usual for this time of year. However, enough precipitation has been received to limit fire danger to mostly the low category in northern Arizona. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow is well below normal for streams originating on the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains as well as much of western Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is below the 20-30th percentile for most of northern Arizona, and below the 5-10th percentile in portions of Yavapai County. Fire Hazard Impacts A drier than normal monsoon through early winter has left fuels drier than usual for this time of year. However, enough precipitation has been received to limit fire danger to mostly the low category in northern Arizona. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for February through April 2024 from the Climate Prediction Center indicate equal chances for below, near, and above normal temperatures. Odds are slightly tilted toward wetter than normal conditions over far western Arizona with equal chances for above/below/near normal for the remainder of the state. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over much of the state through at least April 2024.