Drought Information Statement for North and Central Georgia Valid November 30, 2023 Issued By: NWS Atlanta / Peachtree City, GA Contact Information: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 14, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ffc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Short-Term Exceptional Drought (D4) has ended with recent rainfall over the last two weeks. Drought intensity and Extent for north and central GA Counties listed under most significant drought category. D4 (Exceptional Drought): None D3 (Extreme Drought): Dade, Walker, Catoosa, Whitfield, Murray, Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Towns, Chattooga, Floyd, Gordon, Pickens, Dawson, Lumpkin, White, Bartow, and Cherokee counties D2 (Severe Drought): Polk, Paulding, Cobb, Fulton, Forsyth, Hall, Banks, Gwinnett, Barrow, Jackson, Madison, Oconee, Clarke, Oglethorpe and Wilkes counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Haralson, Carroll, Douglas, DeKalb, Walton, Heard, Coweta, Fayette, Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton, Troup, Meriwether, Spalding and Sumter counties D0: (Abnormally Dry): Harris, Pike, Lamar, Butts, Jasper, Greene, Taliaferro, Chattahoochee, Marion, Schley, Stewart, Webster, Crisp, Toombs and Emanuel counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity Two-Week Drought Monitor Class Change for North and Central Georgia Drought Worsened Over north Georgia, generally along I-20 and northward, conditions worsened by one category Over east central Georgia, where D0 Abnormally Dry conditions were expanded into neighboring counties No Change North of I-85 and I-20 corridors had large areas of persistent (neither improving or degrading) drought conditions in the last two weeks. Drought Improved - Over far northwest Georgia where D4 Excessive Drought improved to D3 Extreme Drought - In west central Georgia, near Columbus, where conditions improved to D0 Abnormally Dry. Precipitation - Past 30 Days In the last 30 days, over north and central Georgia, below normal precipitation has occurred over the entire area. North of a line from Carrollton, to Decatur, to Lexington, rainfall amounts have been between 1 and 2 inches, or 50% of normal or less. Similar amounts also occurred in portions of east central Georgia, near McRae and Vidalia. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for Georgia Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Georgia Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending November 29, 2023 30-day rainfall totals (compared to normal): Rome (RMG): 1.57” (38%) Atlanta (ATL): 2.01” (50%) Gainesville (GVL): 0.92” (22%) Athens (AHN): 1.60” (43%) Peachtree-DeKalb (PDK): 1.16” (28%) Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below to much below normal across most basins in the region, and have worsened over the past two weeks, especially over northeast Georgia in the Chattahoochee and Savannah headwaters that are now considered ‘low’. Reservoirs continued to be low for this time of year, with Lake Lanier currently down about eight feet. See next slide for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Georgia Crop Progress and Condition Report. Good rainfall amounts in the last week helped replenish and improve water resources and soil moisture over the state. Farmers continue to report fair pasture conditions, requiring supplemental feeding of livestock, but that some fields saw a bit of a green up with the recent rain. Even with the rain, some farmers are concerned about seed germination with cool temperatures and persistently low average soil moistures. Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has subsided somewhat, but several counties and park areas continue their burn bans. See slide 8 for more details. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Even with a more unsettled and active weather pattern, the below normal rainfall amounts have still produced a degradation in streamflows. Much below normal 7-day streamflow conditions are occurring in the upper Coosa and Chattahoochee River Basins, and low conditions are occurring in the headwater of the Savannah River. Below normal conditions are occurring in the Coosa, Tennessee, Chattahoochee, Tallapoosa and Savannah River basins. While the Flint, Ocmulgee, Oconee, Ogeechee, and Altamaha River basins fall under ‘normal’ streamflow conditions, limited rainfall has allowed these to drop into the lower end of ‘normal’. Lake and Reservoir levels remain below normal, particularly those over north Georgia. Many lake levels (Lanier, Blue Ridge, Nottely, Allatoona, Hartwell, West Point) have fallen 5-10 feet since September 1. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 29, 2023. Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (below) shows dry to near- normal rankings as of November 29, 2023. Of the nine crop divisions (right), northeast Georgia Crop Moisture Index is Abnormally Dry and the remainder of the state is near normal – an improvement over the last two weeks. This index focuses on the shallow soil profile and responds more quickly to recent rainfall. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (data 1932-2000) valid November 29, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending November 25, 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values have remained above 400 through November, although the most recent map (right) shows improvement. Even with dry conditions, there is a normal (typical) wildland fire potential for December (far right). Image Captions: Above: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for December 2023 Left: Keetch Byram Drought Index for November 29, 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. The NWS Atlanta office continues enhanced collaborative efforts with Fire Weather partners and has completed a typical number of spot forecasts in the last two weeks. Many north Georgia localities continue burn bans and increased education outreach efforts. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The 7-day outlook (through 7am Thu, Dec 7): A shift in the weather pattern is expected to bring wet conditions through the weekend. Over central Georgia, 2.5 to 4 inches of rain are possible. Over north Georgia, 1 to 3 inches are possible. During this time of year, normal rainfall for a 7-day period would range from 0.50 to 1.5 inches. This rainfall should be sufficient for drought improvement statewide. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage For December: Above normal temperatures are expected Above normal rainfall is expected Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid December 2023, issued November 16, 2023 Image Caption: Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to end over much of the state through the winter months. In this same time, drought will improve over far north and northwest Georgia, although it may not be entirely eliminated.