Drought Information Statement for North and Central Georgia Valid November 16, 2023 Issued By: NWS Atlanta / Peachtree City, GA Contact Information: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 30, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ffc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Short-Term Exceptional Drought (D4) has developed and expanded over north Georgia in the last two weeks. Drought intensity and Extent Counties listed under most significant drought category. D4 (Exceptional Drought): Dade, Walker, Catoosa, Whitfield, and Chattooga counties D3 (Extreme Drought): Murray, Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Towns, Floyd, Gordon, Pickens, Dawson, Lumpkin, White, Bartow, and Cherokee counties D2 (Severe Drought): Polk, Forsyth, Jackson, Madison, Clarke, Oglethorpe, and Wilkes counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Hall, Banks, Paulding, Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Barrow, Haralson, Carroll, Douglas, DeKalb, Walton, Oconee, Heard, Coweta, Clayton, Rockdale, Morgan, Troup, Chattahoochee, Marion, Schley, Stewart, Webster, and Sumter counties D0: (Abnormally Dry): Fayette, Henry, Newton, Greene, Taliaferro, Spalding, Butts, Meriwether, Pike, Lamar, Harris, Muscogee, Taylor, and Crisp counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity Two-Week Drought Monitor Class Change for North and Central Georgia Drought Worsened Over northwest and northeast Georgia there was a 1-class degradation in the last two weeks. No Change North of I-85 and I-20 corridors had large areas of persistent (neither improving or degrading) drought conditions in the last two weeks. Drought Improved - No areas saw drought improvement in the last two weeks. Precipitation - Past 30 Days In the last 30 days, over north and central Georgia, below normal precipitation has occurred north of Interstate 20. In this area, rainfall amounts have been 50% of normal or less. Areas north of a line from Cedartown, to Canton, to Helen have been significantly dry, with less than 25% of normal rainfall, or under 1 inch. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for Georgia Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Georgia Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending November 11, 2023 30-day rainfall totals (compared to normal): Rome (RMG): 0.31” (8%) Atlanta (ATL): 0.69” (18%) Gainesville (GVL): 0.48” (13%) Athens (AHN): 0.70” (21%) Peachtree-DeKalb (PDK): 0.73” (20%) Summary of Impacts Streamflows remain below to much below normal across most basins in the region, and have worsened over the past two weeks. Reservoirs are low of this time of year, with Lake Lanier currently down about seven feet. See next slide for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Georgia Crop Progress and Condition Report. Light rainfall amounts in the last week have helped alleviate dry soils somewhat. Pasture conditions continue to be fair to poor, and the combination of fluctuating temperatures and dryness continues to cause cattle stress. Soil moistures have continued to decrease over the past 14 days with much of the area showing below normal soil moisture. Farmers are reporting delayed harvesting or planting of seasonal crops and/or heavy degree of loss with crop yield, or complete or near crop failure. Additionally, there are multiple reports of dry water sources and concern for water availability moving forward. Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has increased and above normal wildland fire activity is expected to continue through November. Several counties and park areas have burn bans, including campfires. See slide 8 for more details. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Degradation in streamflows has occurred in recent weeks due to below normal rainfall. Much below normal streamflow conditions are occurring in the upper Coosa River basin and in the Savannah headwaters. Below normal conditions are occurring in the Coosa, Tennessee, Chattahoochee, Tallapoosa and Savannah River basins. While the Flint, Ocmulgee, Oconee, Ogeechee, and Altamaha River basins fall under ‘normal’ streamflow conditions, limited rainfall has allowed these to drop into the lower end of ‘normal’. Lake and Reservoir levels remain below normal, particularly those over north Georgia. Many lake levels (Lanier, Blue Ridge, Nottely, Allatoona, Hartwell, West Point) have fallen 5-10 feet since September 1. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 15, 2023. Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (below) shows dry to near- normal rankings as of November 15, 2023. Of the nine crop divisions (right), northeast Georgia Crop Moisture Index is Excessively Dry, northwest Georgia is Abnormally Dry, and the remainder of the state is near normal. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (data 1932-2000) valid November 15, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending November 11, 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values have increased above 400 across the majority of Georgia, and are as high as 600+ across northwest and portions of southwest Georgia. Even with the drying conditions, there is a normal (typical) wildland fire potential for November. Image Captions: Above: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2023 Left: Keetch Byram Drought Index for November 15, 2023 The NWS Atlanta office has ramped up collaborative efforts with Fire Weather partners and have received an increased number of spot forecasts for wildfire support in the last two weeks. Many north Georgia localities have burn bans and have increased education outreach efforts. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The 7-day outlook (through November 23): An active weather pattern is expected over the next week, with at least two main periods of wet weather. Low amounts are expected this weekend (mainly far north Georgia) as a front moves south and east across the state. More substantial rainfall is expected Tuesday. During this time of year, normal rainfall for a 7-day period would range from 0.50 to 1.5 inches. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage For the rest of November (not pictured) Below normal temperatures are expected Near normal rainfall is expected for the majority of north and central Georgia For December (right) Above normal temperatures are expected Above normal rainfall is expected Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid December 2023, issued November 16, 2023 Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought will continue to develop or persist through November and into December The Seasonal Drought Outlook continues to show possible drought improvement and/or removal through January.