Drought Information Statement for North and Central Georgia Valid November 2, 2023 Issued By: NWS Atlanta / Peachtree City, GA Contact Information: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 16, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ffc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Georgia Short-Term Extreme Drought (D3) has developed and expanded over north Georgia in the last two weeks. Drought intensity and Extent Counties listed under most significant drought category. D4 (Exceptional Drought): None. D3 (Extreme Drought): Dade, Walker, Catoosa, Whitfield, Murray, Fannin, Gilmer, Chattooga, Floyd, Gordon, Pickens, Dawson, Bartow, and Cherokee counties D2 (Severe Drought): Union, Towns, Lumpkin, White, Jackson, Madison, Clarke, Oglethorpe and Polk counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Haralson, Paulding, Cobb, Fulton, Forsyth, Hall, Banks, Carroll, Douglas, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Walton, Barrow, Oconee, Wilkes, Heard, Coweta, Clayton, Troup, Chattahoochee, Stewart, Marion, Webster and Sumter counties D0: (Abnormally Dry): Meriwether, Fayette, Hendry, Rockdale, Newton, Morgan, Greene, Taliaferro, Spalding, Pike, Lamar, Butts, Harris, Talbot, Muscogee, Schley, Taylor, and Macon counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 2-week change map for North and Central Georgia Two Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: along and north of a line from LaGrange, to Atlanta, to Augusta, with some areas north of I-20 seeing a 2 class degradation. No Change: portions of middle and northeast Georgia Drought Improved: None. Precipitation - Past 30 Days In the last 30 days, over north and central Georgia, precipitation has generally been below normal north of Interstate 20. In this area, rainfall amounts have been 70% of normal or less. Areas north of a line from Cedartown, to Canton, to Hiawassee have been significantly dry, with less than 25% of normal rainfall, or under 1 inch. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for Georgia Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Georgia Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending November 1, 2023 30-day rainfall totals (compared to normal) for driest climate sites in North and Central Georgia: Rome (RMG): 0.50” (14%) Atlanta (ATL): 1.77” (52%) Gainesville (GVL): 1.47” (40%) Athens (AHN): 1.23” (38%) Peachtree-DeKalb (PDK): 1.12” (34%) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below to much below normal across most basins in the region, and have worsened over the past two weeks. See next slide for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Georgia Crop Progress and Condition Report. Soil Moistures have continued to decrease over the past 14 days with much of the area showing below normal soil moisture. Farmers are reporting delayed harvesting or planting of seasonal crops and/or heavy degree of loss with crop yield. Additionally, there are multiple reports of dry water sources and concern for water availability moving forward. Supplemental feeding is required for cattle, with some reports going so far as to indicate a reduction in wild acorns. Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has increased and above normal wildland fire activity is expected to continue through November. See slide 8 for more details. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Degradation in streamflows has occurred in recent weeks due to below normal rainfall. Much below normal streamflow conditions are occurring in the upper Coosa River basin and in the Savannah headwaters. Below normal conditions are occurring in the Coosa, Tennessee, Chattahoochee, Tallapoosa, upper Flint and Savannah River basins. While the Ocmulgee, Oconee, Ogeechee, and Altamaha River basins fall under ‘normal’ streamflow conditions, limited rainfall has allowed these to drop into the lower end of ‘normal’. Lake and Reservoir levels remain near below normal to normal. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 1, 2023. Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (below) shows dry to near- normal rankings as of November 1, 2023. Of the nine crop divisions (right), northeast Georgia Crop Moisture Index is Severely Dry, northwest Georgia is Abnormally Dry, and the remainder of the state is near normal. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile (data 1932-2000) valid November 1, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 28, 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values have increased above 400 across the majority of Georgia, and are as high as 600+ across Dade, Walker, Catoosa and Chattooga counties. Even with the drying conditions, there is a normal (typical) wildland fire potential for November. Image Captions: Above: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2023 Left: Keetch Byram Drought Index for November 1, 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. The NWS Atlanta office has received an increased number of spot forecasts for wildfire support in the last two weeks. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The 7-day outlook (through November 9): Climatologically dry conditions are forecast, with little to no new precipitation amounts. During this time of year, normal rainfall for a 7-day period would range from 0.50 to 1 inches. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage For November: Above normal temperatures are expected. Above normal rainfall is expected for portions of south and east Georgia, while below normal rainfall is expected for far north Georgia. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 2023 Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought will continue to develop or persist through November over north and west Georgia. The Seasonal Drought Outlook continues to show possible drought improvement and/or removal through January. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook