Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid November 7, 2024 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 5, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Needed rainfall occurred earlier this week, but will do little to alleviate drought across the region. Reservoir levels across the service area remain rather low while overall water storage remains low. Monthly outlook for November leans towards drought worsening. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of the Edwards Plateau and I-35 Corridor Percent of Area: 18.06% D2 (Severe Drought): Extends across the portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains Percent of Area: 40.25% D1 (Moderate Drought): Encompasses the Coastal Plains, and portions of the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains Percent of Area: 98.14% Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for south central Texas Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: primarily over the I-35 Corridor, Coastal Plains, and Hill Country. No Change: portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Precipitation Links to the latest Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days Well below normal rainfall was seen over the entire service area, with much of the area seeing little to no measurable rainfall for the month of October. It was one of the driest Octobers on record for the state of Texas. Temperature Summarize conditions/impacts here Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of watersheds across the service area fall within either the below normal to well-below normal percentile classification despite early November rains. Streamflow may show improvement in the 7 day average, but remains well-below normal for nearly every stream in the region on the 28 day streamflow map.(USGS) The Frio River, and portions of the Guadalupe River and lower Colorado river basins remain in the below to much below percentile classifications.(USGS) See next page for more details Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the normal to below normal range. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is forecast through the month of November. This activity is expected to increase in the months of December and January. (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 11/7/2024) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 3 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Georgetown: Stage 2 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 City of Llano: Stage 3 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1051.23 feet 26.8% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 973.32 feet 2.9% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 882.34 feet 52.4% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 503.22 feet 94% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 779.57 feet 65.2% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1003.54 feet 61.7% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.61 feet 97.8% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.48 feet 95.8% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 638.93 feet 44.8% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.20 feet 96.1% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid October 3, 2024 Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of November 7, 2024 The majority of watersheds across the service area fall within either the below normal to well-below normal percentile classification despite early November rains. Streamflow may show improvement in the 7 day average, but remains well-below normal for nearly every stream in the region on the 28 day streamflow map. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of November 7, 2024: 10 day average: 627.5 Historical Monthly Average: 666.0 Departure from Average: -36.5 Agricultural Impacts Links to the latest Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile and Crop Moisture Index by Division. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the normal to slightly below normal range as of November 6th. Crop moisture index values show severely dry conditions across all of our service area as of October 26th. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values of 0 to 400 range across a narrow strip of the Rio Grande Plains into portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country from recent rains. Values range between 500 and 800 across a majority of the service area Near normal wildland fire potential is expected for November Burn bans remain for 29 of our 33 counties as of November 7, 2024. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No rainfall is forecast in south-central TX over the coming week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Continued hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks will lead to continued Rapid Onset Drought impacts in south-central Texas. Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of October leans towards above normal for much of the service area The precipitation outlook leans towards near normal rainfall for most of the service area Drought Outlook The monthly drought outlook for November shows drought persisting for the entire service area The three month outlook mirrors the monthly outlook showing drought persisting and expanding through the month of January Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage