Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid November 2, 2023 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated Dec 7, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 Exceptional Drought: Resides over portions of Bexar and Medina Counties D3 Extreme Drought: Covers portions of the Hill County, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains D2 Severe Drought: Extends across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: across portions of the Rio Grande Plains. No Change: Portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and Coastal Plains.. Drought Improved: Much of the Hill Country, Coastal Plains, and I-35 Corridor Precipitation Late October saw the return of several showers and thunderstorms that brought locally heavy rainfall to a sizable portion of the area. This provided some much needed drought improvement. A portion of Maverick and Kinney Counties saw less than half of the normal rainfall for the month of October. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Many of the river basins across the service area have improved into the normal to much above normal range. Portions of the Nueces, and Guadalupe river basins remain below to much below normal. See next page for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife. Near normal crop moistures are shown across the three crop divisions within the service area. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected for the month of November. More details below. Other Impacts Canyon Lake remains at lowest lake pool elevation since being constructed. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 11/2) Kerrville: Stage 4 Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Llano: Stage 4 City of Georgetown: Stage 2 San Antonio: Stage 2 Universal City: Stage 2 New Braunfels: Stage 2 Austin: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Many of the river basins across the service area have improved into the normal to much above normal range. Portions of the Nueces, and Guadalupe river basins remain below to much below normal. Canyon Lake remains at its lowest level on record. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of November 2, 2023: 10 day average: 634.9 Historical November Average: 666.2 Departure from Average: -30.5 Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1063.81 feet 29.7% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 9.76.31 feet 3.7% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 889.42 feet 63.2% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 501.20 feet 79.3% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 771.28 feet 45.3% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 993.89 feet 44.6% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.66 feet 98.1% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.46 feet 95.7% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 6.32.21 feet 38.7% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.06 feet 95.2% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid November 1, 2023 Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of November 2, 2023 Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures have improved to near normal across much of the area with portions of the Coastal Plains below normal, and a small position of the Hill Country above normal. Near normal crop moistures are shown across the three crop divisions within the service area. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values have dropped below 200 across much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau. Values over 500 are still across portions of the Rio Grande Plains Normal wildland fire activity has been observed over the past several weeks, and outlooks suggest this will continue through November. Burn bans remain for 9 of our 33 counties as of November 2nd, 2023. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No rainfall is forecast in south-central TX over the coming week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Continued hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks will lead to continued Rapid Onset Drought impacts in south-central Texas. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Odds lean towards above normal temperatures to continue on average through the month of November. Chances are equal for above, below, or near normal precipitation for November. Drought Outlook The Drought Outlook reflects potential improvement of drought conditions due to ENSO through the month of November. While improvement or ending of drought conditions across a sizable portion of the area, a swath of the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Coastal Plains of persistent drought is expected through November. The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage