Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid October 5, 2023 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated Nov 2, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Austin/San Antonio, TX can be a single WFO CWA, or can be a different geographic area in the case of collaborated products U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio, TX Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT October 5, 2023. Drought intensity and Extent D4 Exceptional Drought: Resides over much of the Hill Country, the I-35 Corridor, and portions of the Coastal Prairies D3 Extreme Drought: Covers the remainder of the Coastal Prairies and Hill Country (not already in D4). D2 Severe Drought: Extends from portions of the southern Edwards Plateau south-eastwards into portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No degradation of drought conditions were observed over the past 30 days. No Change: Cross much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, Coastal Praries, and Rio Grande Plains. Drought Improved: Portions of the Rio Grande Plains, Hill Country, and southern Edwards Plateau. Precipitation Last 30 days Late September thunderstorms brought locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to help provide some short term relief. The vast majority of the area saw less than half of normal rains in the past 30 days. Zavala/Dimmit counties are 2 to 3 inches below normal for the past 30 days. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below to much below normal across most basins in the region. Inflows to the Highland Lakes have been essentially zero. See next page for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife. A mixture of crop moistures are shown across the three crop divisions within the service area. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected for the month of October. More details below. Other Impacts Water recreation is severely impacted on Lake Medina, Lakes Travis and Amistad as well as the Guadalupe, Frio, Pedernales, and Blanco rivers. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 10/4) Kerrville: Stage 4 Fredericksburg: Stage 3 City of Llano: Stage 3 City of Georgetown: Stage 3 San Antonio: Stage 2 Universal City: Stage 2 New Braunfels: Stage 2 Austin: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows remain well below normal in most areas, including at all-time lows in a few basins and sub-basins. Much of the streamflow across the area is in the less than 10th percentile for this time of year (maroon shading on the map). Canyon Lake is at its lowest level on record. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of October 4, 2023: 10 day average: 630 Historical Sept Average: 663.1 Departure from Average: -33.2 Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1065.9 feet 33.5% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 977.2 feet 4.0% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 890.6 feet 65.0% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 500.5 feet 74.7% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 771.2 feet 45.1% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 992.6 feet 45.0% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.7 feet 98.2% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.4 feet 94.9% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 628.5 feet 36% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.1 feet 95.7% Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values have increased above 400 across much of the area, and are as high as 700+ across Hays, Comal, Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, and Gonzales counties. Normal wildland fire activity has been observed over the past several weeks, and outlooks suggest this will continue into October. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No rainfall is forecast in south-central TX over the coming week. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio, TX Odds lean towards above normal temperatures to continue on average through the month of October. Above normal precipitation are favored across the area for October. Drought Outlook The Drought Outlook reflects the expected impact of ENSO on drought conditions through the month of October. While there is only a narrow sliver of the area that might see drought conditions be removed much of the area is forecast to remain in drought while seeing some improvement.