Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid July 3, 2024 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated August 1, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Despite rainfall from a Tropical Storm, drought conditions saw spotty changes Reservoir levels in the Hill County and along the Rio Grande remain very low Monthly outlooks show hot temperatures with mostly equal chances of above, below, or near normal rainfall chances for the month of July 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains Percent of Area: 9.72% D2 (Severe Drought): Extends across the portions of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and I-35 corridor Percent of Area: 21.36% No Drought or D0 (Abnormally Dry): Extends across the portions of Rio Grande Plains, and Coastal Plains Percent of Area: 48.02% Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for south central Texas Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains No Change: Much of the southern Edwards Plateau, I-35 Corridor, Rio Grande Plains, and Hill Country Drought Improved: Portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, I-35 Corridor, Rio Grande Plains, and Hill Country Precipitation Links to the latest Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days Rainfall was very spotty across the service area for the past 30 days Some locations saw above normal rainfall of 200 to 300 percent of normal While other locations saw only 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall Tropical Storm Alberto helps to bring the above normal rainfall for primarily for Fayette, Maverick, and Dimmit Counties Temperature Summarize conditions/impacts here Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Late month rainfall helped to provide some short term improvement in streamflows along the Colorado and Llano River basins (USGS) Unfortunately, the longer running rainfall deficits continue to prevent significant improvement the much of the service area’s river basins where most are either in the below or much below normal range for this time of year (USGS) Medina Lake is now at 2.3 percent capacity, Amistage is 24% capacity, and Canyon Lake has returned to setting daily record low elevations See next page for more details Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife Despite some moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto, soil moistures have dropped to well below normal across the entire service area due to numerous hot and dry days (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is forecast through the month of July (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 7/3/2024) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 3 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Georgetown: Stage 2 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 City of Llano: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1047.17 feet 24.2% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 970.51 feet 2.3% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 885.01 feet 56.3% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 504.72 feet 100% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 786.48 feet 85.2% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1008.75 feet 76.6% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.68 feet 98.2% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.38 feet 95.1% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 634.32 feet 40.6% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.15 feet 95.8% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid July 2, 2024 Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of July 2, 2024 Late month rainfall helped to provide some short term improvement in streamflows along the Colorado and Llano River basins Unfortunately, the longer running rainfall deficits continue to prevent significant improvement the much of the service area’s river basins where most are either in the below or much below normal range for this time of year. Medina Lake is now at 2.3 percent capacity, Amistage is 24% capacity, and Canyon Lake has returned to setting daily record low elevations Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of July 2, 2024: 10 day average: 631.3 Historical Monthly Average: 659.8 Departure from Average: -31.0 Agricultural Impacts Links to the latest Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile and Crop Moisture Index by Division. Despite some moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto, soil moistures have dropped to well below normal across the entire service area due to numerous hot and dry days Crop moisture index values range from abnormally dry to severely dry across the service area Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values remain at or below 300 across portions of the the Hill Country, and I-35 corridor Values range between 600 and 700 over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau Normal wildland fire activity is forecast through the month of July Burn bans remain for 11 of our 33 counties as of July 3, 2024. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No rainfall is forecast in south-central TX over the coming week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Continued hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks will lead to continued Rapid Onset Drought impacts in south-central Texas. Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of July show strong chances for above normal temperatures The precipitation outlook shows equal chances for above, below, or near normal chances for the month of July across much of the service area There is a leaning towards below normal chances for portions of the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor. There is a slight leaning towards above normal rainfall for a sliver of Maverick and Dimmit Counties Drought Outlook Drought conditions are forecast to persist across the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor through the month of July Drought conditions are forecast to develop across portions of the I-35 corridor and Hill Country. The three month outlook mirrors the monthly outlook with no drought improvement shown through September Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage