Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid March 6, 2025 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated April 3, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal February rains for most meant drought worsening or remaining the same Wildfire forecast to be above normal through April Streamflow and reservoirs remain very low Monthly and Seasonal outlooks advertise drought persistence 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Covers portions of eastern Uvalde, central Medina, and western Bexar County Percent of Area: 2.85% D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and I-35 Corridor Percent of Area: 43.85% D2 (Severe Drought): Extends across much of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, I-35 Corridor, and portions of the Coastal Plains Percent of Area: 39.80% D1 (Moderate Drought): Encompasses much of the Coastal Plains, and portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau Percent of Area: 13.11% U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4-week change map for south central Texas Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Coastal Plains. No Change: I-35 Corridor and Rio Grande Plains. Drought Improved: small sliver of Karnes County. Precipitation Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days Much of the service area saw below normal rainfall over the past 30 days. The main exception would be portions of the northern I-35 Corridor which saw between 100-150% of normal. A majority of this rainfall occurred on February 11th and 12th with a stalled frontal boundary. Summary of Impacts See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows across much of the service area remain in the below to much below normal streamflow for early March. The exception to this would be streams that received rainfall from mid February rainfall. (USGS) Area reservoirs remain extremely low across the service area. See next page for more details Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the below to well below normal range as of March 6th. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire potential is expected for March. This activity is expected to persist into April. (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 3/6/2025) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 3 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Llano: Stage 2 City of Georgetown: Stage 2 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1051.14 feet 26.2% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.24 feet 96.3% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1001.74 feet 58.2% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 879.38 feet 48.3% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 780.34 feet 67.3% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 504.10 feet 100% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.71 feet 98.3% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.42 feet 95.4% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 970.84 feet 2.4% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 636.99 feet 43.0% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid March 5, 2025. Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of February 5, 2025 Streamflows across much of the service area remain in the below to much below normal streamflow for early March. The exception to this would be streams that received rainfall from mid February rains. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of March 6, 2025: 10 day average: 630.1 Historical Monthly Average: 667.8 Departure from Average: -37.7 Agricultural Impacts Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile and Crop Moisture Index by Division. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the below to well below normal range as of March 5th. Crop moisture index values show normal conditions across all of our service area as of March 1st. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values of less than 400 are primarily in portions of the I-35 Corridor that saw rain in mid February. Values range between 500 and 800 across a majority of the service area. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected for March and April. Burn bans remain for 18 of our 33 counties as of March 5, 2025. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of March leans towards above normal for the entire service area. The precipitation outlook leans towards below normal rainfall for the entire service area. The seasonal outlook for temperature and precipitation advertises similar trends through the end of May. Drought Outlook The monthly drought outlook for March shows drought persisting for the entire service area. The three month drought outlook shows drought persisting through May for the entire service area. Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage