Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid January 2, 2025 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated February 6, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Isolated improvement in drought conditions in the service area due to late December thunderstorms Wildfire forecast to be above normal through January Streamflow and reservoirs remain low Monthly and Seasonal outlooks advertise drought persistence U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of the Edwards Plateau and I-35 Corridor Percent of Area: 18.06% D2 (Severe Drought): Extends across the portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains Percent of Area: 31.29% D1 (Moderate Drought): Encompasses the Coastal Plains, and portions of the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains Percent of Area: 50.65% Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: small portions of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Coastal Plains. No Change: Much of south central Texas. Drought Improved: portions of the Coastal Plains. Precipitation Much of the service area saw below normal rainfall over the past 30 days. The main exception would be potions of the Coastal Plains which saw between 150% to greater than 300% from late December thunderstorms. Temperature Summarize conditions/impacts here Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows across much of the service area remain in the below to much below normal streamflow for late December/early January. The exception is for streams that received rainfall from late December thunderstorms or runoff from rain that occurred outside of the service area. (USGS) Area reservoirs remain extremely low across the service area. See next page for more details Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the below to well below normal range. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is forecast through the month of November. This activity is expected to increase in the months of December and January. (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 1/1/2025) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 3 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Llano: Stage 3 City of Georgetown: Stage 2 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1051.18 feet 26.5% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 972.12 feet 2.7% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 880.69 feet 50.1% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 503.05 feet 92.7% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 779.28 feet 64.5% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1003.39 feet 61.4% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.73 feet 98.5% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.363 feet 94.9% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 637.94 feet 43.9% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.12 feet 95.6% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid December 31, 2024 Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of January 1, 2025 Streamflows across much of the service area remain in the below to much below normal streamflow for late December/early January. The exception is for streams that received rainfall from late December thunderstorms or runoff from rain that occurred outside of the service area. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of January 1, 2025: 10 day average: 627.6 Historical Monthly Average: 668.4 Departure from Average: -41.4 Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the below to well below normal range as of December 31st. Crop moisture index values show normal to below normal conditions across all of our service area as of December 28th Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values of less than 400 are primarily in a singular county in the Coastal Plains from recent rains. Values range between 500 and 800 across a majority of the service area. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected for January. Burn bans remain for 23 of our 33 counties as of January 2, 2025. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Continued hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks will lead to continued Rapid Onset Drought impacts in south-central Texas. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of January leans towards above normal for the entire service area. The precipitation outlook favors below normal rainfall for most of the service area for the month. The seasonal outlook for temperature and precipitation advertises the same trends through the end of March. Drought Outlook The monthly drought outlook for January shows drought persisting for the entire service area. The three month outlook shows drought persisting through March for the entire service area. The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage