Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid November 4, 2024 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: sr-epz.nws@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 7, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Hottest October on record and below normal precipitation worsened drought this month. Drought conditions expected to persist and possibly worsen through the winter months. Outlook points to prolonged drought conditions. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Davis Mountains, Big Bend region D3 (Extreme Drought) Most of far west Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Southern Dona Ana, Otero, and Luna Counties. D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of southern New Mexico including Dona Ana, Otero, Luna, and Hidalgo Counties. Lincoln National Forest. D1 (Moderate Drought) Gila National Forest (33% of New Mexico) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Central New Mexico (79% of New Mexico) Exceptionally warm and dry October has worsened drought status for southern New Mexico and almost all of Texas. Drought will persist into the winter months locally. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Southern New Mexico, Lower Rio Grande valley. Lincoln National Forest. Drought Improved: No improved was observed No Change: Portions of southwest New Mexico Precipitation 30-day rain totals, 0.10-0.40” along I-10 corridor. 0.25-0.75” over mountain forests. 90-day rain totals, 1-2” along I-10 corridor. 3-5” over mountain forests. Record dryness across Texas, southern New Mexico in October. Most locations finished well below normal. Temperature Record-setting October heat across all of New Mexico and Texas. 30-day anomalies 6-8 degrees above normal. 2024 is still on track to become the hottest year on record for El Paso. October was #1 hottest on record. October temperatures 7.2°C above normal at El Paso International (KELP), a new monthly record. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected the rest of the year. No sudden rises occurred in October. Flow remains higher out of Lincoln National Forest due to recent rains. River levels will continue to drop into the winter season with only temporary rises due to rainfall but long-term river levels should remain consistent into next Spring’s melting season. Rio Grande water has mostly dried up south of the Caballo Dam and will likely remain dry through next Spring. Elephant Butte storage sits at 5.9% capacity, steady from last month and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts More seasonal fall weather expected in November, with several lowland freezes possible. The 2024 Rio Grande irrigation season ended on August 16th with a season surface water allotment of 12 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Recent rains and high elevation snow will decrease fire danger in November, despite below normal soil moisture for this time of year. Large fire risk is low. Four wildfires in New Mexico (South Fork, Indios, Blue 2 and Salt) exceeded 3000 acres in size in 2024. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts River flooding season has ended as river stages ran low all summer long and no excessive rainfall is expected through the rest of the year Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.08 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 3.86 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.39 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 11/4/2024 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 2, 2024 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid November 2, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2024 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A series of Pacific lows have finally brought cooler autumn temperatures to the region. Lowland rain and mountain snow showers are expected through early November. This month is likely to be closer to normal for precipitation than October. 2024 is likely to finish below normal for precipitation area wide. Drought conditions are likely to linger through the rest of the year. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Drought status worsened for many areas this past month. While below normal precipitation totals are still expected through the winter season, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the winter season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid November 9 to 15 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Equal chances for precipitation across New Mexico, west Texas. Likely closer to normal. Monthly average for El Paso: 0.43” 33-40% chance for above normal temperatures across west Texas, southeast New Mexico NOAA Winter Outlook can be viewed here Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through November, likely few changes this month Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook