Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid August 5, 2024 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: sr-epz.nws@noaa.gov This product will be updated September 7, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought status affecting southern New Mexico and far west Texas, improvement from last month. Near normal precipitation across southern New Mexico to start monsoon season, drier than normal conditions later in the season. Drought conditions expected to persist into the fall season. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought) Southeast New Mexico including portions of Otero County D2 (Severe Drought) Lowlands of southern and southwest New Mexico including portions of Dona Ana, Otero, Luna, and Hidalgo Counties. Far west Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. D1 (Moderate Drought) Lower Valley, Gila National Forest (48% of state) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northern and central New Mexico (83% of state) Recent improvement with summer rains, but drought will persist into the fall months across southern New Mexico and west Texas. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No worsening was observed Drought Improved: Slight improvement across south-central New Mexico and far west Texas No Change: Most of western New Mexico Precipitation 30-day rain totals, 1-2” along I-10 corridor. 3-5” over mountain forests 90-day rain totals, 1.50-3.00” along I-10 corridor. 4-6” over mountain forests Rio Grande corridor is much closer to normal, if not slightly above normal this monsoon season. Drought improvement is due primarily from summer rains closer to normal after significantly dry 2023 monsoon and winter. Temperature Slightly above normal July temperatures, closer to normal across central New Mexico, Trans-Pecos regions. 2024 is 2nd hottest year on record for El Paso (so far). July was 8th hottest on record. July temperatures 2.3°C above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins decreased this month as thunderstorm coverage became more isolated. Temporary rises occurred July 22 and 29 with stronger storms, but flow returned to normal quickly. River levels will continue to rely on thunderstorm output the next few months and sudden rises are possible. Gila River levels decreased to 4-5 feet at Redrock and Virden. Rio Grande water was released below the Caballo Dam in early March with normal streamflow expected through the end of summer. Elephant Butte storage sits at 11.2% capacity, a decrease from last month and falling further below 30-year median flow. (Texas Water Development Board). River flooding risk will depend on storm coverage this month. Agricultural Impacts Above normal temperatures will increase heat stress on local agriculture. Drought status will keep demand high. 2024 irrigation season will end on August 16th with a season surface water allotment of 12 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Soil moisture is now near normal due to recent rains and higher moisture, thus decreasing wildfire threat. Monsoon onset led to lighter winds, further limiting the risk of rapid fire spread. Four wildfires in New Mexico (South Fork, Indios, Blue 2 and Salt) have exceeded 3000 acres in size. Low fire danger in August, however the risk for new lightning starts will continue. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila river basin streamflows now running below normal, with a decrease in flow since July. Temporary increases last month due to excessive thunderstorm rainfall. Mimbres basin running much lower than this time last month as storm coverage decreases. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.02 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 4.05 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.58 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso 4.99 ft 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 8/5/2024 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid August 4, 2024 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid August 4, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending August 3, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2024 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rain chances focused westward into Arizona with high pressure centered over the central Rockies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over area mountains, but mostly dry lowlands. Better storm chances expected again by mid-August, still forecasting a below-normal season heading into the final month of summer. Monsoon status looking to finish near normal across south-central New Mexico, below normal across far west Texas. Drought conditions may rapidly intensify again if rain chances fail to return. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Monsoon began in mid-June and was closer to normal precipitation through late June-mid July timeframe. While below normal precipitation totals are still expected through August-September, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist into the fall season and the ongoing monsoon will greatly influence the next few outlooks. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid August 13 to August 19 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation across southwest New Mexico and far west Texas Monthly average for El Paso: 1.67” (wettest month of year on average) 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures across New Mexico and far west Texas. Heat waves likely. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through August, with few changes. Ongoing monsoon will greatly influence the next few outlooks. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook