Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid April 9, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated May 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Drought conditions expected to persist into the summer months, seasonally dry and warm spring expected to continue. River levels well below normal due to lack of mountain snowpack, limited irrigation likely for 2025 Rio Grande growing season. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties D3 (Extreme Drought) Most of Southwest and South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna, Grant, and Hidalgo, Sierra, and Otero Counties. Gila and Lincoln National Forests. D2 (Severe Drought) Northwest and Central New Mexico D1 (Moderate Drought) Northeast New Mexico (93% of New Mexico, 68% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (100% of New Mexico, 85% of Texas) A very dry winter caused drought to worsen, spring a seasonally dry time of year. Drought is expected to persist into the summer months. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of Central New Mexico including Lincoln National Forest and the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Drought Improved: None No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.00-0.10” along I-10 corridor. 0.25-0.50” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 0.25-0.50” along I-10 corridor. 0.50-1.00” over mountain forests. Historically dry winter for many. Little to no mountain snowpack. Far West Texas just picked up 0.25-0.75” from April 3-5, may provide temporary relief from drought conditions this month. Temperature Near or slightly below normal March for New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal or 1-2 degrees below normal. 2024 was the hottest year on record for El Paso. March mean average temperatures 1.6°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the spring. Mountain snowpack is practically non-existent to start April, and the minimal snowmelt is just about complete. No sudden rises occurred in March. Flow remains near normal out of Lincoln National Forest. River levels will remain steady through the spring season with only temporary rises due to rain or thunderstorms but long-term river levels should remain consistent into this summer’s Monsoon season. Rio Grande water has dried up south of the Caballo Dam and will remain dry before opening in early June. Elephant Butte storage sits at 14.2% capacity, a slight increase from last month but well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Warmer and drier than usual conditions expected in April, with few chances for rain showers. Outlook points to a very dry late Spring and rough start to the 2025 growing season. This year’s projected Rio Grande irrigation surface water allotment is only 5-6 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal ERCs exist across the National Forests due to recent dryness, close to the 90th percentile. Soil moisture remains very low. Lack of winter snowpack may limit the spring greenup especially under forest canopies. Large fire risk is Critical with any breezy to windy days going forward. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Very little snowpack over area mountains as of April 1. Lack of mountain snow will minimize flood risk this spring as no excessive rainfall is expected through May. River flooding season will begin again next summer. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.12 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 4.18 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.77 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 4/9/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid April 8, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid April 8, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending April 5, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for April 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Light rain showers possible next week, with a few more opportunities later in the month as the dryline becomes more established across west Texas. Climate outlook for April leans drier and warmer than normal. 2024 finished below normal for precipitation area wide. Drought conditions are likely to linger through the spring season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. While below normal precipitation totals are expected through the spring season, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the spring season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid April 17 to 23 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance for below normal precipitation across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico, 40-50% chance toward Arizona state line Monthly average for El Paso: 0.17” 50-60% chance for above normal temperatures across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through April, possibly increasing in severity across Western New Mexico Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook