Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid February 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated March 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Cold but dry January worsens drought across western New Mexico as winter precipitation falls short. Drought conditions expected to persist into the spring months. Rough start to the 2025 growing season. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Davis Mountains, Big Bend region D3 (Extreme Drought) Most of far west Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Southern Dona Ana, Otero, and Luna Counties. D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of southwest New Mexico including Lincoln and Gila National Forests. D1 (Moderate Drought) Sierra, Catron Counties (36% of New Mexico, 42% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northwest New Mexico (65% of New Mexico, 53% of Texas) A mostly dry winter has caused drought to worsen across much of the local area. Drought is expected to persist through the upcoming spring season. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of western New Mexico including Gila National Forest. Lower Rio Grande Valley. Drought Improved: None No Change: Portions of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.10-0.25” along I-10 corridor. 0.25-0.50” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 1.00-1.50” along I-10 corridor. 1.50-2.50” over mountain forests. December was almost completely dry area wide. Light rain and snow fell in mid-January, but remained below normal for the month. Temperature Series of strong cold snaps made January below normal area wide. Coolest month since 2013. 30-day anomalies 4-8 degrees below normal. 2024 was the hottest year on record for El Paso. January temperatures 3.4°F below normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the spring. Mountain snowpack is practically non-existent to start February, which will keep the spring melting and runoff to a minimum. No sudden rises occurred in January. Flow remains normal out of Lincoln National Forest. River levels will remain steady into the spring season with only temporary rises due to rain or snow melt but long-term river levels should remain consistent into next summer’s Monsoon season. Rio Grande water has dried up south of the Caballo Dam and will remain dry before opening in May/June. Elephant Butte storage sits at 11.8% capacity, an increase from last month but well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Warmer and drier than usual winter weather expected in February, with short-lived cold snaps. Outlook points to a very dry Spring season and rough start to the 2025 growing season. The 2024 Rio Grande irrigation season ended on August 16th with a season surface water allotment of 12 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Near-record ERCs exist across the National Forests due to recent dryness. Soil moisture remains very low. Lack of winter snowpack may limit the spring greenup especially under forest canopies. Large fire risk is Elevated with any breezy to windy days going forward. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Very little snowpack over area mountains as of February 1. Lack of mountain snow will minimize flood risk this spring as no excessive rainfall is expected through February and March. River flooding season will begin again next summer. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.21 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 4.05 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.77 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 2/4/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid February 3, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid February 3, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending February 1, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for February 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast After a mostly dry January, the upcoming spring season is expected to be very dry with few chances for widespread precipitation. Rest of February leans drier and warmer than normal. 2024 finished below normal for precipitation area wide. Drought conditions are likely to linger into the spring season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. While below normal precipitation totals are still expected through the winter season, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist into the spring season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid February 12 to 18 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 40-50% chance for below normal precipitation across far west Texas, 33-40% chance for southern New Mexico Monthly average for El Paso: 0.40” 50-60% chance for above normal temperatures across west Texas and southern New Mexico, short-lived cold snaps. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through December, possibly re-developing further north into Central New Mexico this month Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook