Drought Information Statement for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin Valid October 11, 2024 Issued By: NWS Duluth, MN Contact Information: Next Update: Friday, October 25, 2024 Moderate the Severe Drought conditions have expanded across the Northland early this fall as a very dry weather pattern continues U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Arrowhead, Twin Ports, South Shore and Leech Lake region D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of inland northwest Wisconsin, Brainerd Lakes and far north-central Minnesota D0: (Abnormally Dry): Near International Falls, St. Croix River Valley and southern Price County Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Nearly all of the Northland No Change: Parts of the Brainerd Lakes and the Borderlands of north-central MN Drought Improved: Not Applicable Precipitation Regional precipitation in the past month has been well-below normal. Nearly all locations have seen less than 1” of rainfall since mid-September. There is a pocket of near-normal precipitation along the International Border in MN. Temperature Temperatures have been well-above normal across the entire Northland Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows are running much below normal around the region (USGS Streamflow). Agricultural Impacts Pastures provide very little or no feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock conditions. Very low soil moisture Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger is High to Very High for northeast and north-central Minnesota (MN Fire Danger). Fire danger is also High for northwest Wisconsin (WI Fire Danger). Other Impacts Increased irrigation of gardens and golf courses. Less water for wildlife. Change in wetlands or swamps. Mitigation Actions Burn Restrictions - Four counties in northeast Minnesota have ‘Elevated Burning Restrictions’, with all others having either ‘Restricted’ or ‘No Open Burning - Campfires Allowed’ restrictions in place. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Northeast Minnesota - Streams are running much below normal for all basins except far north-central MN. Northwest Wisconsin - Streams are running much below normal for all basins on the South Shore and are below to near normal for inland northwest Wisconsin. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is extremely below normal in the Northland. Fire Hazard Impacts Well below average precipitation and very warm temperatures in late Summer and early Fall are creating persistent elevated fire hazards as shown by the Significant Wildland Fire Potential continuing to be above normal for October. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast One tenth to one-half of an inch of rainfall is forecast to occur Saturday night, 10/12, to Sunday afternoon, 10/13, as a cold front crosses over the Upper Midwest. Lake effect rain showers are forecast for the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin Sunday night into early Tuesday morning. Any rain showers are expected to bring localized light to moderate rainfall amounts in this time period. Amount of liquid equivalent precipitation forecast over the next seven days Rapid Onset Drought Outlook No rapid onset drought expected. Long-Range Outlooks Longer-term forecasts show equal chances for above or below normal precipitation. Longer-term forecasts show a 50-55% chance of above normal temperatures being favored in the second half of October and into very early November. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Parts of the Arrowhead and South Shore that are currently experiencing drought could see drought end within the next few months.