Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for 
Central Pennsylvania 
Valid February 20, 2025
Issued by: WFO State College
Contact Information: ctp.stormreports@noaa.gov
Next update due by March 7, 2025
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ctp/moreWater?tabName=Outlooks for previous statements.

Most of Central Pennsylvania has been drier than average over the past couple of weeks.
The next seven days look to be relatively dry, followed by a trend towards  above average precipitation in the 8-14 day forecast.
The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.


30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-Day Precipitation Departures have generally been below average across Central Pennsylvania, and 60-Day Precipitation Departures have been below to well below average.

Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
The latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) across is 1-3 inches across much of the Allegheny Plateau, with localized 3+ inches found across parts of the Laurel Highlands. Little if any snow cover was observed across the south-central mountains and the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows are generally running near to above average across western Pennsylvania, near average across central and northeastern Pennsylvania, and below to well below average across southeastern Pennsylvania.

Drought Severity Index - Long Term Palmer:
The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is near normal across much of Pennsylvania, but trending drier across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
The 7-Day precipitation forecast ranges 0.10 inches or less across south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania to 0.25-0.50 inches across northwestern Pennsylvania and the higher elevations of the Allegheny Plateau.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
The 8-14 day forecast calls for a trend towards colder than average temperatures and above average precipitation across Pennsylvania.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends.
The points highlighted in orange and red have a 25% chance of exceeding flood levels this Spring.
This forecast accounts for natural flow only, and does not consider potential ice jams.

Flood Outlook Summary:
Current and expected conditions:

Recent precipitation:		Below to well below average
Snow conditions:		Near average
River Ice:			Near to above average
Streamflow Conditions:		Near to below average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Near to below average
Groundwater:			Near to below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Near to below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Near precipitation is favored over the next two weeks

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.

Next update by: March 7, 2025