Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania 
Valid February 4, 2025
Issued by: WFO State College
Contact Information: ctp.stormreports@noaa.gov
Next update due by February 21, 2025
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ctp/moreWater?tabName=Outlooks for previous statements.

Much of Central Pennsylvania has been drier than average over the past couple of weeks.
The forecast over the next two weeks calls for a trend towards above average precipitation.
The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.


30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-Day Precipitation Departures are well below average across Central Pennsylvania and 60-Day Precipitation Departures are below average.


Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
The latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) across is 1-2.5 inches across much of the Allegheny Plateau, with 2.5-5 inches (locally higher) across parts of the Laurel Highlands. Little if any snow cover was observed across the south-central mountains and the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows are generally running near average across western Pennsylvania, near to below average across central Pennsylvania and northeastern Pennsylvania, and well below average across southeastern Pennsylvania.


Drought Severity Index - Long Term Palmer:
The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is near normal across much of Central Pennsylvania, but trending drier across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
The 7-Day precipitation forecast ranges from 0.50-0.75” across far northern Pennsylvania to nearly 2.00” across the far southwest.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
The 8-14 day forecast calls for a trend towards colder than average temperatures and above average precipitation. The latest 6-10 Day , 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Flood Outlook Summary:
Current and expected conditions:

Recent precipitation:		Below to well below average
Snow conditions:		Near average
River Ice:			Near average
Streamflow Conditions:		Near to below average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Near to below average
Groundwater:			Near to below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Near to below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Above average precipitation is favored over the next two weeks

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.

Next update: February 21, 2025