Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid November 20, 2023 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This will be the last Drought Information Statement until Severe (D2) drought conditions redevelop. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are no longer being observed across Deep South Texas. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions continue across over 21% of Deep South Texas, including most of Hidalgo, southern Brooks, and portions of western Kenedy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across over 62% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Kenedy, and Cameron counties, as well as portions of northern Brooks, eastern Hidalgo, and extreme western Willacy counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought conditions have continued to improve across most of Deep South Texas, including a 3 class improvement across northern Kenedy County, and 2 class improvements across portions of Starr, Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, and Cameron counties. There has been a 1 class improvement across majority of Deep South Texas. There has been no change in drought condition across portions of northeastern Hidalgo and southwestern Kenedy counties. Precipitation Rainfall has increased across most of Deep South Texas over the past 30 days, with multiple frontal boundaries into November bringing persistent beneficial rainfall. Most of Deep South Texas has received over 150% of normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received over 100% of normal rainfall, while most of the mid to lower RGV has received 75% of normal rainfall or less. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 80-85 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 55-65 degrees. Below normal highs and lows are generally expected through Monday, November 27, 2023, with lows dropping into the 40s and highs in the low to mid 60s Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have improved due to beneficial rain across most basins in Deep South Texas, and water levels at Falcon Lake Reservoir, while improved over the past two weeks, are still near historical lows for the second year in a row. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures have improved to near normal for late November. Crop moisture has also improved, with slightly dry to favorably moist values reported across the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Near normal wildland fire activity is expected the remainder of November through January, with below normal wildland fire activity expected in February. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Selected Municipality Restrictions: as of November 20, 2023 Hidalgo County Agua Sud: Stage 2 McAllen Public Utility: Stage 2 City of Hidalgo: Stage 2 City of Pharr: Stage 2 City of Weslaco: Stage 2 Cameron County Laguna Madre: Stage 3 Brownsville PUB: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have improved to above normal as waterways have been replenished from beneficial rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 76th and 90th percentile for this time of year (light blue shading on the map). Texas water share values at Falcon Lake have improved slightly, but remain near historical lows for the second year in a row. Reservoir Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1062.46 | 28.1% Falcon Lake: 301.10 | 260.29 | 13.1% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 31.2% | 34.9% | 46.6% Falcon Lake: 9.5% | 10.7% | 14.0% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures have improved across all of Deep South Texas, with near normal soil moisture. Crop moisture indices have also improved, with slightly dry to favorably moist values reported across the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values have improved to 200 or less across all of Deep South Texas. Near normal wildland fire potential is expected through December, and outlooks suggest normal wildland fire potential is expected through January 2024, with below normal wildland fire potential in February 2024. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Additional rainfall of generally 0.10 of an inch to 0.50 of an inch is expected across Deep South Texas through Monday, November 27th. The best chance of rain over the next week will arrive on Thanksgiving and next Monday, November 27th. Overall, rain chances through Thursday, November 30th, are likely above normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks On average, there is an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of December. On average, there is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of December. Through February 2024, there is an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures and chances are leaning toward above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas, including most of the populated Rio Grande Valley through the month of November. Drought removal is likely across all of Deep South Texas through February 2024.